Butler Basketball: Keys to success against Florida at home

Opponent Intel: Florida Gators

With regard to the opposition in this contest, Florida entered this season ranked as a preseason top-10 team in the country. This was due to a strong returning core of sophomores, an incoming recruiting class ranked No. 4 in the nation, and the arrival of arguably the best graduate transfer big in the country. Everything seemed to be lining up for the Gators to post a monster season.

Well, through the first few weeks of the year, the team has fallen quite short of those expectations. Florida still holds a 6-2 record and is regarded as a fringe top-25 team, but offensive struggles have led to a bit of underachievement thus far. This road matchup against a nationally-ranked Butler squad, though, could be a potential turning point for the Gators if they are able to notch a win.

In order to gain a more in-touch perspective on Florida, I talked with Eric Fawcett of Gator Country about the team and this particular matchup. We did a similar Q&A in reverse and you can check out Eric’s article once it is published (link coming soon).

LH: Florida has struggled to live up to preseason expectations a bit so far this year but the team is still hovering around the top-25. What have been some of the biggest strengths for the Gators and which aspects have they struggled in compared to what had been anticipated?

EF: So far the biggest strength has been their defense, something you can come to expect with Mike White’s teams. While they don’t have the absurd length or eye-popping athleticism normally associated with overwhelming defensive teams, they simply have multiple responsible defenders on the perimeter who can keep their man in front of them and not allow straight-line drives.

Florida’s defense starts with protecting the rim and not allowing anything easy inside and once they take that away, they’ve got enough length to contest jumpers. So far, they’ve done well at keeping the ball out of their hoop.

What hasn’t been clicking is their offense. Florida hasn’t been able to establish a consistent offensive rhythm and their uninspired play on that end has led to some close calls with Towson, Saint Joseph’s, and Marshall—three teams a team with Florida’s talent shouldn’t struggle with.

Coach Mike White is still trying to figure out what offense will work and how he can get points on the board. Right now, it’s still seeming like a feeling-out process, something that’s starting to become a concern eight games into the season.

LH: Kerry Blackshear Jr. appears to be Florida’s most talented and most consistent scoring weapon. What does he bring to the court for the Gators and which others are worth monitoring as potential top offensive players?

EF: In a world where posting up is less and less a part of basketball, Kerry Blackshear Jr. remains a threat. He’s an efficient player on the block who can either get his own bucket or recognize a double team and kick it out to an open shooter. If teams try to guard him one-on-one, he’s probably going to foul his opposing defender out of the game. With a massive frame and a good touch, he’s just so good at finishing around the rim. Because of that, he can generate a lot of easy points around the rim, whether it be off a drop-off pass or an offensive rebound.

After Blackshear you’re looking at point guard Andrew Nembhard as Florida’s most important offensive player. One of the best passers in the country, he uses his 6-foot-5 frame to see over the defense and create passing angles a typical point guard couldn’t. Any easy basket that the Gators generate is due to Nembhard distributing. Nembhard isn’t someone who is going to cook his man off the dribble and get his shot off, but he’s someone who is going to methodically get in the paint, draw help, and make the proper decision.

Another player to watch is sophomore Keyontae Johnson. He’s an extremely athletic forward who starts at the “4” for Florida and offers their best option as a slasher. With an explosive first step, he’s incredible at attacking closeouts and getting into the lane. With his length and athleticism, he’s tough to contain when he gets to the rim. At over 43% from three so far, defenses want to take away his catch-and-shoot jumper but when they come to close out, he’s always looking to attack their weak foot and get into the lane. Johnson isn’t going to initiate a lot of Florida’s sets but he’s going to finish a lot of them.

LH: How would you describe Florida’s scheming on both ends of the floor? What have been some of Coach White’s points of emphasis? 

EF: Defensively, Florida is a man-to-man team. They’ll sometimes throw in an extended 1-3-1, something I’m fully expecting them to do for 4-8 minutes against Butler, but it changes back to man-to-man when the ball goes below the free-throw line. They’ll switch a lot of actions both on the ball and away from it as the size of Nembhard and the relatively quick feet of Blackshear Jr. allow them to switch comfortably on traditional 1-5 pick-and-rolls. Taking away easy points at the rim is the focus and they’ll pack the paint on drives and send double teams (you’ll hear them yell “fire” when they go to double) on post-ups.

Offensively, they play slowly and are quite set-reliant. Experienced basketball fans will recognize some classic Princeton offense concepts with back screens on the perimeter for players moving the ball, and a lot of it is going to go through Kerry Blackshear Jr. in the high post. While they’ve been working through sets a lot of the time, their best offense is a simple pick-and-roll with Nembhard and Blackshear Jr. This results in Nembhard being able to display his surgical passing or a post-up where Blackshear can take advantage of what’s usually a favorable matchup.

LH: This will be Florida’s second true road game of the season but fourth contest away from home. How would you assess how this young squad has performed outside of Gainesville and how might they respond to playing in Hinkle Fieldhouse?

EF: Their only true road game this year has been at UConn and that didn’t go particularly well as they played pretty frantically and missed most of the open shots they got. Like I mentioned earlier, Florida is a team that runs a lot of sets offensively and requires particular personnel starting at certain spots on the floor, something that usually requires a lot of direction from Nembhard and Coach White. I think the crowd noise hurt that communication against the Huskies and it could absolutely be the case again against Butler.

Interesting enough, in the last couple of seasons, Florida has played pretty well on the road and it’s been their lackluster play at home that has led to the team underachieving. So, while I wouldn’t say this is a team that’s particularly vulnerable on the road, I think it’s still a team that’s generally vulnerable due to their rocky start to the season. If Butler strings together a few stops and the crowd is getting louder with every single one, doubt is definitely going to creep into Florida’s mind.

LH: Where do you think Florida’s biggest advantage in this game? Disadvantage?

EF: I would think the biggest advantage is Kerry Blackshear Jr. on the block. There aren’t a lot of players capable of taking him on individually in the post and if Florida can space the floor appropriately in a way that deters help defense from coming I like his ability to score in this one. Bryce Nze is so strong and he won’t allow Blackshear to catch the ball three feet from the rim and lay it in, but Blackshear has a major length advantage and that could come into play.

Something that’s got to be concerning for the Gators is the Kamar Baldwin-Andrew Nembhard matchup. Balwin is going to get his offensively but I think the Gators can keep him from exploding, but I think it’s what Baldwin can do defensively that could be the most important. Everything Florida does offensively starts with Andrew Nembhard getting the basketball and orchestrating sets. He needs to be able to get to certain spots on the floor to make the initial pass to start the offense and with Baldwin defending him, I’m not sure how he’s going to do that.

The only times Florida has had success offensively this year were against teams that played passively and sat back defensively. Teams that have gotten into Florida’s guards have had success and I think Baldwin could be a one-man defensive stopper in this one. If you take out Nembhard, you’ve taken out a lot of what Florida can do defensively so Baldwin might win this game single-handedly with his quick feet and active hands.

(Mid-Article Hark’s Bark: I would assume that it is actually Aaron Thompson that draws the Nembhard matchup, but the same theory applies with regard to his defense.)

LH: Finish the sentence: “If Florida wins this game, it will be because…”

EF: …they find a way to score. And it probably can’t just be Blackshear post-ups because Butler can find a way to scheme him out of the game and make someone else beat them. The Gators need to find a way to get the ball into the paint and force some defensive rotations to try and ultimately get an open shot. Butler is a great offensive team but I think the Gators will be able to manage them on that end. Scoring the ball is a whole other story for Florida.

Now, with the opponent intel covered, let’s dive into my keys to success for Butler in this matchup.