NCAA Basketball: Don’t overreact to hot shooting of Michigan and Dayton

It can be tempting to draw conclusions from early games. When a team like Michigan or Dayton gets hot from three, however, is it best to exercise caution?

The Thanksgiving-week tournaments brought plenty of entertaining basketball and impressive performances. Two teams in particular, however, grabbed the attention of the college basketball world: Michigan and Dayton.

(Credit to KenPom and sports-reference for statistics)

With wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, the Michigan Wolverines went from unranked all the way to No. 4 in the AP Poll. Over in Maui, the Dayton Flyers scored victories over Georgia and Virginia Tech before falling in impressive fashion to Kansas in overtime. Anthony Grant’s squad rose from unranked to No. 19.

Red-Hot From Downtown

If there’s one thing these two teams have in common, it’s blistering 3-point shooting. Even with a 3-19 (15.8%) performance in a loss at Louisville, the Wolverines are still shooting 39.9% from long-range, 22nd in the nation. Meanwhile, the Flyers are attempting threes at the 49th-highest rate and hitting 40.3% of them (19th nationally).

The two squads earned the “Thanksgiving spotlight” by shooting especially well in high-profile games. Michigan shot 11-26 (42.3%) and 12-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range in its wins over North Carolina and Gonzaga, while Dayton went 11-24 (45.8%) and 16-33 (48.5%) against Virginia Tech and Kansas respectively.

With these performances, both teams feel like top-20 teams at a minimum, and their hot shooting doesn’t seem fluky. At the same time, however, it’s important to not overreact to a team’s performance based on just a game or two, particularly when that performance is characterized by incredible long-range shooting.

In going 12-23 (52.2%) against Gonzaga, Michigan may have legitimately been the “No. 1” team in the country on that given day. But since the Wolverines might not have a shooting performance quite like this again all season, it’s worth being cautious before concluding that Michigan is therefore the “No. 1” team in the country. The performance serves as an impressive indicator of the team’s “ceiling” moving forward, but it’s likely not reflective of what the team will “generally” be this season.

Don’t Overreact To Hot Shooting

Michigan and Dayton aren’t the only teams that have been a part of “outlier” shooting games thus far, and again, one should be careful before overrating (or underrating) a team based on these performances. So far this season (through 12/8), there have been 23 games in which a team has 1) made at least 10 threes, 2) hit at least 40.0% of their threes and 3) been facing a ranked opponent (per sports-reference).

The below chart reflects these 23 games and compares each team’s 3-point shooting to that of its overall percentage on the season. Michigan accounted for two of the games (North Carolina, Gonzaga), with Dayton accounting for one (Kansas). What else should be taken away from the results?

Baylor/Villanova

Baylor seems to have several capable shooters, so perhaps it will fare well from long-range all season. Still, it’s worth noting that arguably its “signature win” against Villanova featured an 11-19 (57.9%) showing from downtown. This game understandably generated a lot of optimism for the Bears, but it’s worth noting the “outlier” nature of the shooting before vaulting Baylor to the top-tier of college basketball. In the same vein, it’s likely not wise to get too down on Villanova for this loss either.

Michigan State

The Spartans have been struggling a bit, with a record of only 6-3 on the season. Virginia Tech’s 10-21 (47.6%) shooting in an upset victory over the Spartans, however, suggests this loss, at least, might not be as concerning as it initially appeared.

On the other hand, in Michigan State’s only “signature win” this season against Seton Hall, the Spartans shot 12-27 (44.4%). Given Tom Izzo’s squad is only shooting 33.0% on the season, this performance may have REALLY been an outlier. So perhaps the concerns are warranted after all.

Virginia/Purdue

Virginia’s offensive limitations will likely plague the team all season, but its defense could be historically great. A 29-point loss (69-40) at Purdue has understandably created doubts that the Cavaliers are a top-ten caliber team, but the result may have been a bit misleading. The Boilermakers shot the lights out, making 13-25 (52.0%) from three, almost 20% better than their 32.7% season average. Virginia has plenty of issues, but things likely aren’t as dire as they looked against the Boilermakers.

Gonzaga

Diehard college basketball fans may have noticed Gonzaga didn’t look overly impressive in a 72-66 home victory over UT-Arlington earlier this season. It’s worth noting, however, that the Mavericks got scorching hot from downtown (11-26, 42.3%). Maybe the Bulldogs shouldn’t be knocked down a peg for this showing.

Teams should receive ample credit for stellar shooting performances, but it’s probably not wise to draw too many conclusions from these “outlier” games. The same goes for when a team faces an opponent that gets red-hot from beyond the arc.