3. Limit easy attempts at the basket.
Kansas is one of the most dominant teams in the entire country when it comes to controlling the paint. In addition to simply ranking extremely well in rebounding categories, the Jayhawks aggressively attack the basket and consistently let Azubuike work in the post as well. To this point in the year, Kansas ranks eighth nationally in mid-range shooting (46.2%) and seventh on near-proximity attempts (72.8%). The Jayhawks are simply superb on 2-point shot attempts considering the driving of Devon Dotson and the finishing of Azubuike.
Even though Kansas is shooting 36.6% from three this season, the team is far more comfortable operating inside the arc and that is evident in its scoring distribution. The Jayhawks are scoring 56.6% of their total points this year on 2-pointers and limiting those shots in the lane will be necessary for Villanova to win this game.
In order for the Wildcats to knock off the No. 1 team in the country, even at home, they will need to take the Jayhawks out of their comfort zone. That means forcing them to make big-time shots from further away in what will surely be a raucous environment.
Additionally, cutting off those driving or passing lanes could really eliminate Kansas’ rhythm on the offensive end of the floor. The Jayhawks are averaging 15.7 seconds per offensive possession so far this season (38th-fastest) and making them look past their first or second option could be crucial. Kansas is at its best when scoring downhill and Villanova will be in great shape if it is able to force long possessions.
Limiting shots at the rim will force Kansas to constantly reset their possessions. The hope should be that Nova’s size, length, and athleticism in the frontcourt will be very disruptive.
On the whole, I think that these two teams are fairly evenly matched and home-court advantage will play a major role. Villanova has enough big-time shot-makers that it can rely on hitting well-timed trifectas to keep the crowd engaged and maintain a lead in what should be an extremely fun game.
Final score prediction: Villanova Wildcats – 79, Kansas Jayhawks – 76