Butler Basketball: Keys to success against Seton Hall at home

Pregame Hark’s Bark

1. Watch for the “Mid-Range Baldwin Special”.

Seton Hall features one of the best defenses in the country thanks to its pair of elite-level shot-blockers in the paint. As already referenced, Gill and Obiagu are combining to swat 4.4 shots per game as a duo and they make finishing at the rim extremely difficult. While Butler will definitely still look to attack the basket early and often, it is reasonable to expect a few of those shots to be sent back rather than through the hoop.

Additionally, the Pirates are quite strong defensively on the perimeter. They are forcing teams into tough 3-pointers on a lot of possessions and that has resulted in teams connecting on just 30.4% of those attempts.

Kamar Baldwin, though, has mastered the lost art of the mid-range jumper. With his post-fade and pull-up, Baldwin has essentially turned an inefficient shot into a great one over the past few years. With his long arms and wide variety of moves as a probing scorer, Baldwin is very difficult to stop between the paint and the 3-point line.

He can rake in buckets from the mid-range and that might be a hole in Seton Hall’s defense that very few teams have a guard capable of exploiting. After all, the mid-range jumper really is a lost art – it’s a shot that defenses are usually open to surrendering.

If Baldwin can get his turnaround going early, that would be a great sign for Butler.

2. Dawgs need to feed off the home crowd.

This matchup pits the No. 5-ranked team in the country (Butler) against the No. 18-ranked team (Seton Hall). As a result, this is going to be an extremely difficult game to win for the Dawgs. Even though Butler will likely be favored by several points, Seton Hall is not a team to mess around with. The Pirates represent arguably the toughest opponent that the Dawgs have faced to this point in the season and the Hinkle Fieldhouse crowd will need to be ready to come out on droves for the Wednesday battle.

It is reasonable to think that the Dawgs’ faithful will pack the historical venue and the players will need to feed off that energy. Look for Butler to attempt an occasional 3-pointer early in the shot clock when it feels as though it is gaining momentum. Those kinds of makes can really turn Hinkle Fieldhouse into a frenzy. Kamar Baldwin, most notably, has hit a few of these in his career while the likes of Jordan Tucker and Sean McDermott are also viable threats.

3. This could be the matchup for unsung seniors.

Henry Baddley and Derrik Smits have largely flown under-the-radar as rotation pieces this season despite their extensive years of collegiate experience. For Baddley, he is a senior that has been with the Butler program for all four years of his career as a consistent role player. He has seen his playing time dip this season but he can still be very useful in games such as this one.

As already discussed, Baddley is a superb energy defender and could be utilized to cover Powell for extended stretches. He is also smart with the ball offensively and rarely forces the issue. He might not be a big-time scoring threat but he can make the occasion 3-pointer or slashing finish.

Smits, on the other hand, is a graduate transfer senior from Valparaiso. Although he missed the first several games of this season due to a nagging knee injury, he has seen 10.6 minutes per game over Butler’s last six contests. He is definitely a part of the usual rotation as the third big behind Nze and Golden.

We have already seen that Smits can be impactful at the Big East level (rewatch the first half vs. Creighton if you disagree) and this could be the right matchup for him to play significant minutes. Seton Hall’s massive duo of Gill and Obiagu could be difficult to handle and that might yield extra PT for Smits. He is an experienced vet with a 7-foot-1 frame – an excellent piece to have ready to go off the bench when necessary.

This has the makings of an intense battle between arguably the two best teams in the Big East this season. The winner will take over the sole possession of first place early in the conference schedule and give an edge moving forward. I think that these two teams are very evenly matched but Butler’s home-court advantage will be the difference.

Final Prediction: Butler Bulldogs – 62 | Seton Hall Pirates – 59