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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images) /
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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 11: San Diego State controls. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 11: San Diego State controls. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: San Diego State.

At-Large Contenders: Liberty, Northern Iowa, SoCon, and others.

San Diego State Aztecs (18-0, 7-0 MWC)

NET: 4 | KPI: 15 | SOR: 1 | BPI: 12 | KP: 12 | Sag: 9

Q1: 3-0 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 8-0

San Diego State is one of the two undefeated teams left in the country. Unlike Auburn, though, the Aztecs already have three Q1 wins with all of those coming over future NCAA Tournament teams. Head coach Brian Dutcher has done an excellent job with this team as many of his transfer additions have been spectacular. The Aztecs rank in the Top 15 in every metric and should be expected to dominate the MWC over the coming two months. Barring a massive collapse, they are a lock.

Liberty Flames (18-1, 4-0 ASun)

NET: 23 | KPI: 71 | SOR: 18 | BPI: 34 | KP: 49 | Sag: 63

Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 11-0

Liberty is going to have a very tough time landing an at-large bid. Although their metric rankings are solid, the Flames will likely end this season with only two Q1+2 wins and 20+ victories in Q4. Their extremely low strength of schedule will make it very difficult to reach the Big Dance if they do not win the Atlantic Sun Tournament. With that said, though, the Flames are the overwhelming favorite to win that conference and shouldn’t have to be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Northern Iowa Panthers (14-2, 3-1 MVC)

NET: 37 | KPI: 51 | SOR: 26 | BPI: 72 | KP: 56 | Sag: 62

Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 0-0 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 5-0

Northern Iowa will have more chances for quality wins in the MVC than Liberty will have in the ASun so it is worth discussing here. Head coach Ben Jacobson has done an excellent job with this roster while pushing the Panthers to become one of the best mid-major offenses in the country. Trae Berhow and AJ Green are an absolute nightmare to defend. In order to reach the Big Dance as an at-large team, Northern Iowa will need to roll through MVC play with very minimal defeats. They have already suffered one loss and can’t afford too many more.

SoCon Contenders: ETSU, Furman, Western Carolina (maybe Wofford/UNCG)

If anyone in the SoCon runs away with the league at the top, they will emerge as a legit at-large contender. I lean in favor of East Tennessee State as the most-likely team to pull this off but they are not alone. The SoCon is a better league than it is given credit for, but an at-large will only come if a team really dominates league play at 14-2 or 13-3, in my opinion. Those mentioned above could be threats.

Others worth noting: Akron, Yale, Utah State, New Mexico, Louisiana Tech, Harvard, Vermont.

Next. Week 11 Top 25 Power Rankings. dark

That concludes this early look at every team that I am considering for an at-large bid. This piece will surely mold and change over the coming months but serves as a snapshot of the current at-large picture. Check back again next Wednesday for another edition!

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