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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Duke, Baylor assigned early lock status

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 02: Bubbles in the air at The Boleyn Ground during the Betway Cup match between West Ham Utd and SV Werder Bremen at Boleyn Ground on August 2, 2015 in London, England. (Photo by Tony Marshall/Getty Images) /
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DAYTON, OHIO – DECEMBER 17: Toppin of the Flyers dunks. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
DAYTON, OHIO – DECEMBER 17: Toppin of the Flyers dunks. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: None.

Safely in the field: Dayton.

Some perspiration: None.

Double the deodorant: VCU, Richmond, SLU, Rhody, Duquesne

Dayton Flyers (15-2, 4-0 A10)

NET: 8 | KPI: 18 | SOR: 16 | BPI: 6 | KP: 6 | Sag: 15

Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 5-0

Dayton has been one of the most impressive teams in the country since the opening tip of this season. Behind the excellent leadership of head coach Anthony Grant, the Flyers have emerged as arguably the most potent offensive unit in the land and have reached a superb record. There is a very legitimate argument to be made for Dayton to already be a lock for the Big Dance but I am leaving it just on the cusp of that due to the potential for bad losses in A10 play. I’m not expecting any to occur by any means because the Flyers should roll, but it is a possibility. Obi Toppin is a legitimate contender for National Player of the Year and he has a great supporting cast.

VCU Rams (12-5, 2-2 A10)

NET: 43 | KPI: 50 | SOR: 61 | BPI: 44 | KP: 51 | Sag: 55

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 7-0

VCU entered this season with high expectations of not only competing for the A10 title but also sticking in the Top 25 throughout the campaign. Through the first two months, the Rams have mildly disappointed but remain in the NCAA Tournament conversation (unlike Davidson). VCU still holds a Top 25 defensive unit in the country and its relatively consistent metrics warrant consideration for an at-large bid at this point. Additionally, their lack of bad losses helps as well. There are more opportunities for quality wins than people realize in A10 play and this could be a three-bid league.

Richmond Spiders (13-4, 3-1 A10)

NET: 63 | KPI: 45 | SOR: 66 | BPI: 63 | KP: 82 | Sag: 97

Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 6-0

After falling to Saint Louis at home during this past week, Richmond needed to find a way to get back on track and it did just that with a road win over Davidson in its most recent game. Although the Spiders might not exhibit the best efficiency/predictive metrics, they do sit at 13-4 with a 3-3 record in Q1+2 games. That’s really not a bad place to be as they have proven that they can roll over most lower-level competition. If they can continue to take care of business in the “easy” games and snag a couple more road wins, we will be right back to talking about Richmond as an at-large team. The Spiders have a sneaky resume that features a Q1 win over Wisconsin (neutral-site) that won’t go away anytime soon.

Saint Louis Billikens (14-3, 3-1 A10)

NET: 47 | KPI: 47 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 122 | KP: 87 | Sag: 76

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 7-0

Saint Louis knocked off Richmond on the road during this past week to propel itself firmly into the bubble conversation. The Billikens are yet to suffer a bad loss by resume standards and rank well in resume metrics. Their sub-100 standing in the BPI, though, is killing their current potential for an at-large bid and that will need to be remedied in the near future. Saint Louis, though, has won six of its last seven games and has the momentum necessary to pick up some big wins in the future. Everyone in the A10 bubble conversation is chasing that elusive win over Dayton. The Billikens will have their home chance on Jan. 17th. Worth monitoring.

Rhode Island Rams (10-5, 2-1 A10)

NET: 67 | KPI: 42 | SOR: 60 | BPI: 75 | KP: 68 | Sag: 77

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 3-0

I pegged Rhode Island as one of my dark-horse contenders to win the A10 in the preseason. Through the first two months of the campaign, the Rams have not exactly been a surprising team but they are hanging around the bubble with a chance to strike during conference season. Fatts Russell has taken the next step into stardom in his junior year and the team’s defense is quite stout as well. During this past week alone, Rhody picked up victories over VCU and Davidson to enter this conversation. A favorable schedule awaits over the next month so the Rams have the potential to either boost their resume with more Q2/3 wins or fall off the bubble by suffering some questionable losses.

Duquesne Dukes (14-2, 4-0 A10)

NET: 48 | KPI: 74 | SOR: 53 | BPI: 56 | KP: 66 | Sag: 85

Q1: 0-0 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 5-2 | Q4: 7-0

Duquesne is rather quietly sitting at 14-2 with an undefeated record in A10 play through the first few weeks. While the Dukes have certainly played an easy schedule to get to this point, their metrics all rank in the Top 100 and they might be a better team than their SOS gives them credit for. Duquesne already jumpstarted conference play with convincing wins over Saint Louis and Davidson – that is not something to simply overlook. Head coach Keith Dambrot is doing a great job with this team and there is hope for a big run over the coming months. While Duquesne’s record is great right now, though, it will be hard to overcome its low SOS for a bid. The team needs to pick up some big-time victories in the coming months to have a shot.

Lots of work to do: George Mason and Saint Bonaventure.

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