Busting Brackets
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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Xavier, Tulsa surging into consideration

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: The reflection of the stadium can be seen in a bubble ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: The reflection of the stadium can be seen in a bubble ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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PORTLAND, OREGON – NOVEMBER 12: Coach Hardway of the Tigers speaks. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
PORTLAND, OREGON – NOVEMBER 12: Coach Hardway of the Tigers speaks. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: None.

Safely in the field: Houston.

Some perspiration: Wichita State.

Double the deodorant: Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulsa.

Houston Cougars (17-5, 7-2 AAC)

NET: 34 | KPI: 30 | SOR: 30 | BPI: 28 | KP: 25 | Sag: 21

Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 5-0

Houston split its road trip during this past week with a win over East Carolina and a loss to Cincinnati. All things considered, that is a pretty solid week as Houston remains relatively firmly in my projected field. The Cougars’ Q3 loss continues to hurt their resume a bit but the biggest issue is the lack of quantity with regard to quality wins. Houston still has five games left against teams in this bubble watch and winning over 50% of those would really help push this team up some seed lines. The Cougars have lost just three times since mid-November and I’m not expecting them to collapse down the stretch. They are too consistent and well-coached. Houston looks destined for a single-digit seed barring any changes. Current Bracketology Status: No. 8 seed

Wichita State Shockers (17-4, 5-3 AAC)

NET: 38 | KPI: 28 | SOR: 25 | BPI: 41 | KP: 40 | Sag: 39

Q1: 0-2 | Q2:  7-2 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 7-0

Wichita State lacks a Q1 win and it is already February. That isn’t ideal for bracketology considering the committee usually weights quality wins over just about anything else with regard to selection/seeding. While the Shockers do hold seven wins in Q2, having a couple of those move up could do wonders for their resume. As it stands, Wichita State belongs in the field but it doesn’t have much margin for error. That seems silly to say considering the Shockers are a four-loss team playing in a difficult conference but it is the truth. Without any top-tier wins, a couple of bad losses could tank this resume. I think Wichita State is in good shape considering its consistent winning in the AAC, but there are some holes in its resume. Road contests against Houston, Cincinnati, and Memphis still remain as the main Q1 opportunities on the schedule. Current Bracketology Status: No. 9 seed

Memphis Tigers (16-5, 5-3 AAC)

NET: 50 | KPI: 42 | SOR: 42 | BPI: 65 | KP: 56 | Sag: 43

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 6-0

Memphis won back-to-back games over UCF (away) and UConn (home) during this past week to move back into my projected field. While the Tigers have not exactly lived up to their preseason hype of being a Top 15 team in the country, they have played well enough despite a major departure to remain in the bubble conversation. This past week was absolutely huge for their chances as well as they handled their business against decent opposition while several other teams dropped games. Memphis holds relatively solid metrics across the board and only one loss in Q3. Landing another quality win or two down the stretch will be the key for the Tigers as they only have one Q1 win at the moment. Home matchups against KenPom sub-100 opponents approach this week, though, and handling those games has to be “Priority No. 1”. Current Bracketology Status: No. 12 seed

Cincinnati Bearcats (14-7, 7-2 AAC)

NET: 46 | KPI: 37 | SOR: 65 | BPI: 42 | KP: 43 | Sag: 34

Q1:  0-4 | Q2: 6-0 | Q3: 5-3 | Q4: 3-0

Despite not holding a single Q1 win and having suffered three Q3 losses, Cincinnati is creeping towards the cutline. The Bearcats rank well across the board in metrics for a bubble team and their resume is boosted by a 6-0 record in Q2. Additionally, it appears as though this squad is hitting its stride. Cincinnati has won each of its last four games and that includes taking down Houston at home during this past week. Houston is sitting right on the edge of the NET Top 30 as well right now, so the Bearcats might finally snag a Q1 win if that win ages well. Cincinnati will not be able to dance without more quality wins so their upcoming two-game road trip against Wichita State and UConn will be huge for their tournament hopes. Current Bracketology Status: OUT.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (15-6, 7-1 AAC)

NET: 61 | KPI: 54 | SOR: 64 | BPI: 80 | KP: 59 | Sag: 63

Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 7-1 | Q4: 4-1

Tulsa lacks quality wins and has suffered a pair of bad losses. Yet, the Golden Hurricane are creeping into some bracketology fields (not mine) due to their recent string of successes. They are currently in the midst of a six-game winning streak that included victories over Houston, Memphis, and Wichita State. Tulsa once ranked as low as No. 119 in KenPom after the end of the non-conference season – it now sits at No. 60. I’m not ready to say that Tulsa’s resume is strong enough to be in the projected field at this moment but it is trending up while seemingly everyone else is trending down. The Golden Hurricane’s tournament hopes are very much alive.

Current Bracketology Status: OUT.

Lots of work to do: SMU.

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