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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Xavier, Tulsa surging into consideration

By Lukas Harkins

LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: The reflection of the stadium can be seen in a bubble ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 25: The reflection of the stadium can be seen in a bubble ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round match between West Ham United and West Bromwich Albion at The London Stadium on January 25, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA – JANUARY 28: Diakite of the Cavaliers cheers. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA – JANUARY 28: Diakite of the Cavaliers cheers. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Duke, Florida State, Louisville

Safely in the field: None.

Some perspiration: None.

Double the deodorant: Virginia, Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame

Virginia Cavaliers (14-6, 6-4 ACC)

NET: 57 | KPI: 38 | SOR: 43 | BPI: 40 | KP: 54 | Sag: 38

Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 4-0

Virginia has not played a game since the last installment of the bubble watch but remains firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation. The Cavaliers experienced a major boom following their home win over Florida State and now sit right around the cutline for most bracketologists. I have UVA as one of my last four teams in the field but it will have work to do in order to solidify a spot next month. Virginia has a relatively favorable closing schedule for bracketology considering there are a few opportunities for high-quality wins but also a bunch of matchups with lower-level competition. Current Bracketology Status: No. 12 seed

Syracuse Orange (13-9, 6-5 ACC)

NET: 65 | KPI: 61 | SOR: 70 | BPI: 46 | KP: 53 | Sag: 49

Q1: 3-4 | Q2: 2-5 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 6-0

Syracuse rose close to the cutline following a five-game winning streak a couple of weeks ago. Now, though, the Orange have dropped back-to-back games and once again have a fair amount of work to do in order to dance. A pair of winnable home games against Wake Forest and NC State come next on the schedule and the team needs to take both of them heading into a really tough two-game road trip against FSU and Louisville. This is the four-game stretch that will define Syracuse’s season. Winning at least two is a must. Current Bracketology Status: OUT

NC State Wolfpack (14-8, 5-6 ACC)

NET: 69 | KPI: 55 | SOR: 68 | BPI: 52 | KP: 70 | Sag: 67

Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 6-0

NC State has lost three games in a row and is in big trouble. The Wolfpack were once regarded as a true bubble team sitting right around the cutline but they now have a lot of work to do and are trending in the wrong direction. This team needs to figure out how to get back on track very soon and that could be difficult considering it is about to embark on a three-game road trip. Their metric numbers have all tanked to sub-50 across the board as well. Current Bracketology Status: OUT

Virginia Tech Hokies (14-9, 5-7 ACC)

NET: 62 | KPI: 74 | SOR: 57 | BPI: 61 | KP: 93 | Sag: 82

Q1: 2-5  | Q2: 3-3 | Q3: 1-1 | Q4: 8-0

Virginia Tech is similarly falling apart as it has lost four straight games and five of six. The Hokies now hold just a 14-9 (5-7 ACC) record and it feels as though they are falling out of the NCAA Tournament picture. They are about to play four of their next five games at home, though, so racking up a winning streak could put them back in the hunt. I am not all that optimistic considering their play as of late, but the Hokies are not completely out of the bubble picture yet. There are sliding out of frame in a hurry, though. Current Bracketology Status: OUT

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-8, 4-6 ACC)

NET: 63 | KPI: 102 | SOR: 81 | BPI: 53 | KP: 57 | Sag: 52

Q1: 1-4  | Q2: 1-3 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 7-0

I’m not sure how Notre Dame has gotten onto the bubble but it is within striking range of a potential at-large bid. The Fighting Irish definitely have a lot of work to do in order to make this happen but they have a closing schedule that features huge opportunities for quality wins as well as some contests against the bottom of the conference. Notre Dame is a longshot to snag an at-large bid but its efficiency metrics are solid and they only have one Q3+4 loss. The Irish aren’t a true bubble team yet but I am monitoring them for the moment. Current Bracketology Status: OUT

Lots of work to do: Pittsburgh.

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