Duke vs. North Carolina: 2019-20 biggest keys for game at Dean Smith Center

Keys for UNC to win

The Tar Heels are not a running team this year.  While they are seeing their scoring at historic lows, Duke ranks fourth in the country in points per game.  They should not try to run with the Blue Devils.

North Carolina does have an advantage though.  They can pound the ball inside to try and force Duke out of playing Matthew Hurt for Javin Delaurier or Jack White.  This would take seven points and 40% from three off the floor.

While both Delaurier and White are capable defenders, Duke’s offense needs Hurt on the floor to stretch defenses.  He is also a good driver to the basket when faced with closeouts and has a nice array of interior spin and post moves.

Pounding the ball inside would also give UNC the chance to get Vernon Carey into foul trouble.  He was able to play with four fouls for the last 14:22 of the BC game.  The Eagles do not have an interior presence as good as either Brooks or Bacot.

UNC should start every offensive possession in the half-court with a post touch.  If Duke doubles, kick it out for shots or secondary drives after the defense has moved.  If Duke plays straight up, attack Carey for fouls or every other post defender to score with the stronger Brooks and Bacot.

Garrison Brooks needs to play like he was before Cole Anthony’s return.  The two seem out of sorts with Brooks unable to get the consistent touches he was seeing as the first option with Anthony out and he responded by averaging almost 19 points per contest.

Cole’s move to the two could help alleviate the pressure these two have to get on the same page and UNC’s big guys average 3.4 assists, as many as the North Carolina point guard.  The bigs may be more effective in opening shots for other players passing out of the post.

Roy Williams should think about doubling Carey to force the ball out of his hands.  He is not adept at passing out of the double and only dishes one assist a game with two turnovers.  He averages over four fouls per contest and is usually good for one of those on the offensive end.

Carey and Tre Jones have the highest usage rates by far on the Duke team.  Getting Jones off the ball is probably a long shot, but there should be a concerted effort to make someone other than Carey beat them.