2. Win the free-throw battle.
Butler’s biggest issue in conference play has free throw attempt differential. I’m dead serious. This is a facet of the game oft-overlooked but it has been a killer for the Dawgs over the past month and a half. After getting to the line slightly more than its opponents during non-conference play, Butler has been getting destroyed in those numbers in the Big East season. It’s impossible to find a true reason for this shift but Butler’s defense needs to find a way to adapt.
Butler non-conference foul rates (high major opponents only)
— Jared Grubbs (@ButlerWay) February 10, 2020
Offense: .349
Defense: .292
Difference: +0.057
Conference opponents:
Offense: .315
Defense: .380
Difference: -0.070 https://t.co/1qEAchn1kZ
The Dawgs will need to find a way to not only draw more contact than they have in recent weeks but also prove to the officials that they are not fouling on the other end. Xavier and Butler are both extremely physical teams and that could result in plenty of free throw attempts for both teams in this matchup.
If that turns out to be the case, Butler has the statistical advantage in foul shooting. The Dawgs have connected on 73.4% of their shots at the charity stripe so far this season while the Musketeers have shot just 65.4%.
Statistics, though, only show what has happened to this point and cannot be used as complete predictors for the future. If this turns into a game where both teams attempt ~20 free throws, then the Dawgs will need to show that they are a better team in that area by stepping to the stripe and knocking them down.
Butler’s biggest issue has been the FTA disparity as of late but fixing that only matters if it is able to take advantage of the attempts that it gets.