NCAA Basketball: Kansas dominance, overrated FSU, and more weekly takeaways
By Brian Rauf
5) Colorado is primed for an early upset in the NCAA Tournament
Colorado is right at the forefront of the Pac-12 title race and, while they’ll drop from their No. 16 ranking following their loss to Oregon on Thursday, they will likely stay in the top 20.
They’re in line for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament – our bracketologist Lukas Harkins currently has them projected to be a No. 5 seed – yet that loss to the Ducks showed why they’re most likely to be upset in the first round than make a long run.
Why? They simply turn the ball over too much, especially against pressure.
The Buffaloes have struggled with this for a couple of years now and rank 236th nationally in turnover percentage this season. It was a major problem for them earlier in the year against Kansas and Northern Iowa, and it’s a problem that becomes extremely prevalent from time to time.
On average, the Buffs turn the ball over 13.6 times per game, which isn’t great. However, in their six losses, they’re averaging 14.8 turnovers per game.
It’s particularly crippling for them when they get pressed. When Oregon ramped up their defensive pressure in the second half when trying to come back, Colorado turned the ball over 16 times in the half (12 steals by Oregon, four shot-clock violations).
Turnovers have kept them from beating good teams (Kansas, Arizona, Oregon), but it has also made them lose to teams they should beat easily (Northern Iowa, Oregon State, UCLA). Their projected seed will likely put them against a quality mid-major – one who can take advantage of this weakness. I’d expect the Buffs to be upset in the first round because of this.