Bracketology 2020 Bubble Watch: Breaking down at-large contenders
Lead-Pipe Locks: San Diego State.
At-Large Contenders: Northern Iowa, ETSU, Utah State, UNCG
Northern Iowa Panthers (22-4, 11-3 MVC)
NET: 40 | KPI: 43 | SOR: 36 | BPI: 63 | KP: 41 | Sag: 64
Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 10-2 | Q4: 6-0
Northern Iowa suffered a road overtime loss to Loyola-Chicago during this past week and dropped a couple of seed lines as a result. Even though it might seem unfair, the margin for error among at-large mid-major teams is razor-thin. The Panthers have only lost four games all season but will remain sweating right up until Selection Sunday. They need to win each of their final four, including two tough road games) to feel a bit safer heading into the MVC Tournament. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 11 seed.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers (23-4, 12-2 SC)
NET: 42 | KPI: 51 | SOR: 28 | BPI: 43 | KP: 56 | Sag: 52
Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 6-0 | Q4: 10-1
East Tennessee State is in a similar situation as Northern Iowa. The Buccaneers have also only lost four games and are the dominant force in their respective conference. A home matchup with Furman comes next and that could be a very tough game. Getting through that would significantly raise the at-large hopes for ETSU. Without a large margin for error, ETSU needs to focus on finishing conference play with four more wins. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 11 seed.
Utah State Aggies (21-7, 10-5 MWC)
NET: 41 | KPI: 60 | SOR: 43 | BPI: 35 | KP: 40 | Sag: 36
Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 9-0
Utah State has not lived up to its preseason hype this season yet remains in the at-large conversation. The Aggies have won seven of their last eight games and are rising up all metrics. They only have three regular-season games left to build their resume but are already on the right side of my cutline. Winning those three and advancing relatively far in the MWC Tournament might be enough to dance. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 12 seed
UNC Greensboro Spartans (21-6, 11-3 SoCon)
NET: 55 | KPI: 59 | SOR: 51 | BPI: 50 | KP: 62 | Sag: 61
Q1: 2-2 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 11-1
Thanks to relatively strong metrics for a mid-major and a 4-4 record in Q1+2 games, UNC Greensboro is hanging around the bubble. A two-bid SoCon might not be likely at this point but it is a possibility. The Spartans have won nine of their last 10 and finish with few solid opportunities for Q2/3 wins. They need some help, though. Current Bracketology Placement: OUT.
Next. Bracketology Projected Field. dark
That concludes this edition of my bracketology bubble watch with a little under one month remaining until Selection Sunday. Check back again next Wednesday for another update.