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Bracketology 2020: San Diego State, Arizona and Marquette biggest losers

By Andrew Dieckhoff

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 22: Head coach Brian Dutcher of the San Diego State Aztecs directs his team from the bench area late in the game against the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Viejas Arena on February 22, 2020 in San Diego, California. The Runnin' Rebels defeated the Aztecs 66-63. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 22: Head coach Brian Dutcher of the San Diego State Aztecs directs his team from the bench area late in the game against the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Viejas Arena on February 22, 2020 in San Diego, California. The Runnin' Rebels defeated the Aztecs 66-63. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /
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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 22: Matt Mitchell #11 of the San Diego State Aztecs (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 22: Matt Mitchell #11 of the San Diego State Aztecs (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /

San Diego State (26-1, 15-1 MWC)

The MAP is no more.

San Diego State suffered their first loss of the season on Saturday when they were taken down at home by a scrappy UNLV team. The result ensured that there will be no undefeated programs heading into this season’s slate of conference tournaments.

But the bigger question is: did the Aztecs just lose their #1 seed?

While the Aztecs may not be content to see their top billing dissipate, the blow would be cushioned to some degree by San Diego State’s near-inevitable placement in the West bracket.

Their first two games are almost certain to be played in Sacramento, and the West regional being played in Los Angeles, a drop to the two-line would give the Aztecs an opportunity to make a run to the Final Four without ever leaving their home state.

Still, a #1 seed is always preferred.

So, as to whether it’s fair that they should fall from grace after just one loss, let’s investigate.

First, the good: The fact that San Diego State has only lost one game is clearly the major feather in their collective cap. They have nine wins across the top two Quadrants, with no losses. Going undefeated against your best opponents is always a good idea—especially when you have a strength of schedule outside of the Top 100. So far, so good.

This is also one of only seven teams in the country that came into Sunday ranked in the top 10 of at least five of the major analytical metrics used by the NCAA’s selection committee. Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Duke, Maryland, and Dayton were the others. (Note: The Terps may drop out of this list after Sunday’s loss to Ohio State.)

So, San Diego State is definitely in the conversation for that #1 seed.

On the other hand, the Aztecs were (perhaps crucially) outside the top four in all of those metrics. They were also ranked #14 in the Kevin Pauga Index coming into Sunday.

As for their body of work, among the seven teams listed above, San Diego State is tied with Duke and Dayton for the least Quadrant 1 victories, with each of those teams having just four on the season. And with Saturday’s defeat against UNLV, the Aztecs also joined the Blue Devils as the only teams among the top seven with a loss in Quadrant 3.

This is not to say that San Diego State is not a national title contender. Brian Dutcher has a group of winners, led by likely All-American and Mountain West POY Malachi Flynn.

But now that SDSU is no longer unbeaten, there are definitely reasons to think the committee will go a different direction with on the one-line come Selection Sunday.

For right now, though, I think the Aztecs still have a tentative hold on the #1 thanks to some helpful losses from their peers in the top seven. Their margin of error is now razor-thin, so they need to avoid any further losses to their Mountain West compatriots.

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