Bracketology 2020: San Diego State, Arizona and Marquette biggest losers

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 22: Head coach Brian Dutcher of the San Diego State Aztecs directs his team from the bench area late in the game against the UNLV Runnin Rebels at Viejas Arena on February 22, 2020 in San Diego, California. The Runnin' Rebels defeated the Aztecs 66-63. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /

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SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JANUARY 30: Josh Green #0 of the Arizona Wildcats (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Arizona (19-8, 9-5 Pac-12)

For the second time in as many tries, the Wildcats fell to Oregon…in overtime…by a single point. With a scoreline that very nearly mirrored the first meeting between these two schools, the Ducks prevailed with 73-72 win in Tucson to keep pace in the hunt for Pac-12 glory.

But it all could have been so different.

With under two seconds remaining on the clock, Arizona had one last opportunity to score a buzzer-beating victory at home over their conference rivals after Shakur Juiston put the Ducks up by a point. Jemarl Baker summoned every ounce of Grant Hill and launched a deep inbounds pass into the far key, which fell perfectly into the hands of big man Christian Koloko.

But there was no Laettner-esque turnaround jumper. Instead, there was a Payton Pritchard foul that sent Koloko—a 35% free throw shooter—to the line for two shots that could have won the game.

Since you’re reading about Arizona on the Bracketology Losers post, you can probably imagine what happened next.

The seven-footer bricked both free throws, sealing the Wildcats’ fate in a game they needed to move back up toward a protected seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats have a strange and difficult-to-nail-down tournament profile; to wit, they entered Sunday ranked as high as #8 in BPI and as low as #38 in SOR. Even ESPN’s own analytics are torn on this team. Their NET (#9) and KenPom (#12) rankings are strong, but they are outside the Top 20 in Sagarin’s predictor.

Looking at their more tangible wins and losses, Arizona is 3-6 in Quadrant 1 and 5-1 in Quadrant 2. Those eight combined wins are nice, but against the backdrop of seven losses, they lose some luster. They also have a Quadrant 3 home loss to UCLA, but the Bruins are quickly moving up the rankings after their midseason disappearing act. That loss could move into Quadrant 2 in the coming days.

The narrative surrounding this Wildcat team would be much different had they beaten Oregon in one or both of their matchups. As it stands, Arizona is hovering right around the five-line—but tilting more toward the six than the four.

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