MVC Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

By Joey Loose | Mar 4, 2020

ST. LOUIS, MO - MARCH 10: Luuk van Bree #13, Luqman Lundy #2 and Antoine Pittman #3 of the Bradley Braves fight Justin Dahl #15 and Tywhon Pickford #3 of the Northern Iowa Panthers for a loose ball during the final game of the MVC Basketball Tournament at the Enterprise Center on March 10, 2019 in St. Louis, Missouri. The Bradley Braves beat the Northern Iowa Panthers 57-54 to win the MVC Championship. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

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BOULDER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 10: D’Shawn Schwartz #5 of the Colorado Buffaloes moves around the defense of AJ Green #4 and Justin Dahl #15 of the Northern Iowa Panthers (Photo by Lizzy Barrett/Getty Images) /

Bracketology

With their season-long lead in the MVC race, much of the focus in bracketology has gone to Northern Iowa. In current projections, the Panthers are included as either an 11-seed or 12-seed, putting them right on the bubble. Realistically, there is a chance that Northern Iowa can receive an at-large bid, but they’ll almost certainly need two wins before losing in the conference championship game.

Northern Iowa sits at 37th in the NET rankings and boasts a road win at Colorado, a Q1 victory. Though they have dropped four road games in conference play, this team has played some impressive basketball all season long. They raced out to a 16-2 start to the season. If they can get to 27 wins, they might just have a chance at the at-large bid that so often gets tugged away from worthy mid-majors.

If Northern Iowa is not victorious in the MVC Tournament, then things certainly get interesting for the remaining teams. Loyola and Indiana State both sit just inside the top 100 and would clearly rise with 3 more wins on their resume. However, neither would likely net anything higher than a 14-seed, especially with some questionable losses on both schedules.

Beyond that, things get quite dire. Last year, Bradley gave Michigan State a real challenge from the 15-seed, but I’m sure the MVC would like to avoid a repeat performance. If a Missouri State or Valparaiso catches fire, then that 15-seed might be exactly what results for the MVC.

Northern Iowa would almost certainly be playing in the First Four in Dayton if they make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tournament. Their win over Colorado was great, but they might have suffered one too many conference losses to make a strong case. It’s incredible to consider that lowly Evansville has the best win this league has seen in several years.