Bracketology 2020: Utah State, Rutgers and Wisconsin among biggest winners

Beneficiaries of Northern Iowa’s defeat

Conference tournaments for mid-major programs on the at-large bubble are just so difficult to navigate. The biggest question always is “can they make the Big Dance without needing the auto-bid?” And the answer is always “depends on who they lose to”. There are some teams that are good enough where a loss isn’t killer, versus those who can bring down a resume.

Take what happened in the Missouri Valley Tournament this week. Northern Iowa, the No. 1 seed was considered to be right on the bubble heading into postseason play. The consensus view was that if they lost to Loyola-Chicago or make it to the finals and loses in a tight one, the Panthers would still be in a good position to get an at-large bid.

What wasn’t going to work was a loss in the quarterfinals to Drake. The same Drake that Northern Iowa handled by 27 points in the regular-season finale. The Panthers fell behind big early but was able to come all the way back in the second half before another Drake run did them in. Now the favorites have another Quad 3 loss, in addition to both Colorado and South Carolina (the only good resume wins) having lost this week as well.

Considering that Utah State took a bid, Northern Iowa’s chances of an at-large bid are slim to none knowing that they can’t play any more games until Selection Sunday. Had the loss come in the semifinals or finals, their odds would’ve been better. Bubble teams everywhere were fine with this being the last impression from the Panthers.