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Bracketology 2020: Northern Iowa, UCLA, Texas in trouble after tough week

By Andrew Dieckhoff

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 15: Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins talks to head coach Mick Cronin while playing Stanford Cardinal at Pauley Pavilion on January 15, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 15: Tyger Campbell #10 of the UCLA Bruins talks to head coach Mick Cronin while playing Stanford Cardinal at Pauley Pavilion on January 15, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 07: Matt Coleman III #2 of the Texas Longhorns (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 07: Matt Coleman III #2 of the Texas Longhorns (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images) /

Texas Longhorns (19-12, 9-9 Big 12)

Similar to UCLA, this Longhorns team was written off as a legitimate tournament contender for a large portion of the season. Shaka Smart has led Texas on a strong push down the home stretch, however, and the Horns came into the week in a prime position to solidify their at-large case. But as has become an all-too-common leitmotif during Smart’s tenure in Austin, Texas’ high hopes were dashed against the rocks of disappointment.

The Longhorns started things off on the right foot on Tuesday, as a buzzer-beater in Norman gave Texas an extremely valuable road win over Oklahoma. It was the team’s fifth Quadrant 1 victory of the season and it positioned them well against other bubble competitors. The win also seemed as though it would continue to fuel a winning streak that had crept to five. All that remained of the Longhorns’ Big 12 campaign was a Senior Day clash against Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys were more than happy to spoil the fun for Texas, coming into Austin and slapping an embarrassing 81-59 loss onto the Longhorns’ resume. Though Oklahoma State does qualify as a Quadrant 2 opponent for this game, the loss now drops Texas’ overall record to 19-12. The margin of defeat could prove especially damaging, as well, as it will be reflected in one form or another across most of the advanced analytics used by the selection committee.

Going away from the computers for a moment, Texas’ actual wins and losses are decent. They have solid road wins over Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Purdue, and Oklahoma State, as well as a home win over West Virginia. The Longhorns also have exactly zero losses against teams currently outside the NET Top 100, although Iowa State is treading dangerously close to falling past that line.

Texas will open the Big 12 Tournament with a massive contest against Texas Tech, with both teams fighting for their at-large lives. Much like the potential UCLA-Stanford game in the Pac-12 Tournament, this will be another head-to-head sample that the selection committee will want to keep their eyes on. While one game should not carry enough weight to make the final determination, if all things are truly equal otherwise, the at-large hopes of both teams may depend on the result of this matchup.

Without another win over the Red Raiders, Shaka Smart could see another season end without an NCAA Tournament bid. If that happens, Texas may feel they have no choice but to move on from their head coach after another failure to live up to the program’s lofty expectations. On the other hand, a late push into the Big Dance could buy Smart a little more time in Austin—or, at the very least, it would make him a more attractive candidate to his next employer, in the event Texas decides to part ways with him regardless of how this year plays out.

Our last Bracketology Loser doesn’t have to worry about the bubble, but they may have lost out on a big prize after taking just their second loss of the season.

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