Bracketology 2020: Northern Iowa, UCLA, Texas in trouble after tough week

San Diego State Aztecs (29-2, 17-1 MWC)

What happens in Vegas…could cost the Aztecs their #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. After starting the season out with a massive 26-game winning streak, San Diego State has now dropped two of its past six games—a stumble that could be much more detrimental that it sounds. The major factor lifting SDSU above the rest of the NCAA Tournament field (outside of Kansas, Baylor, and Gonzaga) was their total lack of losses. Now, it’s harder for them to rely on that number.

The Aztecs were able to roll through their first two games in the Mountain West Tournament, eventually. Over the past few weeks, Brian Dutcher’s team has developed the dangerous habit of letting their opponents build up early leads. This was the case for both Air Force and Boise State, though San Diego State was able to dispatch both squads with strong second-half performances. In the championship game against Utah State, that narrative played out in reverse.

San Diego State came out and punched the Aggies right in the mouth, especially on the defensive end. Utah State had immense difficulty scoring the basketball in the first half, but a late push just before halftime brought the deficit back to single digits. A strong push early in the second half put the game right back into contention. Down the stretch, it was Utah State’s Sam Merrill—not Mountain West POY Malachi Flynn—who made the big shot to win the game.

And now, San Diego State’s tournament stock has taken enough of a hit that many bracketologists are pushing the Aztecs down to the two-line in favor of Dayton. While the Flyers’ resume will undoubtedly come under its own scrutiny over the coming days, they still have games to play. SDSU, meanwhile, is left to ponder whether what they accomplished over the past five months will earn them top billing at the annual March show.

To that end, consider what the Aztecs have done. Besides just going 29-2—an impressive feat in its own right—San Diego State has amassed wins over top teams such as Creighton, BYU, and Iowa. They beat the Blue Jays, a team currently projected as a two-seed, by 31 points on a neutral court. They beat the Hawkeyes by ten. It should be noted that the win over BYU came during the first week of the season, while star big man Yoeli Childs was still serving a suspension.

Probably the biggest factor working against the Aztecs is their home loss to UNLV, which qualifies as a Quadrant 3 loss. That blemish is worse than anything on Dayton’s resume, so even though San Diego State has a better collection of wins, they may end up paying a steep price for their late stumbles.

It’s not all bad, though. If San Diego State ends up as a two-seed, they will likely be sent out to the West region, where they would be on track to play games in Sacramento and Los Angeles. This turn of events would certainly benefit fans hoping for a cheaper trip, though it does also carry the consequence of placing the Aztecs on a more difficult path to the Final Four.

Check back next week for a pre-Selection Show edition of Bracketology Losers, where we will take a look at which teams’ Championship Week choke jobs are most likely to cost them a trip to the Big Dance.