MAAC Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

Semifinals

Iona vs. Niagara

The two schools finished league play with identical 9-11 records, and only one point separated the two teams in regulation time in the two games they played in the regular season. Niagara won both. I’m taking the Gaels in this one, and the biggest factor that I think will propel Iona past the Eagles this time isn’t the revenge factor or Iona’s incredible success rate in this tournament, but Niagara’s complete inability to win games away from Gallagher Center.

They were an abysmal 2-17 away from home, and seeing them double that total is probably a generous prediction for Paulus’s team. Iona was one of the two away games Niagara managed to win (they also beat Norfolk State on the road in December), but I also doubt Iona can’t figure out how to get on the right side of a series that’s been so close all year.

Prediction: Iona

Siena vs. Monmouth

I’m going to make a bold prediction right now: whoever comes out of this side of the bracket is going to take the MAAC championship. Rider and St. Peter’s are either too inexperienced or have too poor a track record in this tournament to reasonably predict their winning the title, and, barring something unforeseen, this should be a four-team contest between Siena, Monmouth, Rider and SPU.

This one for me is the toughest game to call in this tournament. On one hand, you have Siena’s championship season, their incredible winning streak, one of the most dangerous players in the conference in Jalen Pickett; on the other is Monmouth, a team that with an almost identical squad made a run to the championship game a season ago and seem poised to finish what they couldn’t then, a backcourt that’s not easily matched in this league, a coach in King Rice that’s been knocking on the door of this title for half a decade. Really, it’s a toss-up. Split the hair any way you want, but if this game does happen, don’t miss it.

I’m going to take Monmouth. A team with the talent and experience they have is not going to be an easy pin for Siena to knock down for a third time. As good of a job as Maciariello has done, he’d be facing a coach in King Rice that’s been navigating this tournament – and coming just short of winning it – for years. Throw out the advanced stats for this one, it’ll be a knock-down-drag-out in front of what could be a very strong crowd in historic Boardwalk Hall.

Prediction: Monmouth

Finals

Monmouth vs. Iona

Iona took down Monmouth twice in the final during their four-year run, which I’m going to predict will come up just short of reaching a fifth in this game. And again, turn the bets off for this game, too. Beyond the numbers, the matchups that already happened, the leaders and the depth and the x’s and o’s, this game comes down to two programs that have been battling atop of this conference year after year, coaches and players that are intimately familiar with one another.

In what would be the third matchup between these teams in this game since 2016, I’m taking the Monmouth Hawks to finally get over the hump and find their way into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006.

Prediction: Monmouth