Atlantic 10 Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview, predictions

Atlantic 10 Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 08: A general view as the George Washington Colonials play the Saint Louis Billikens during the second half in the Second Round of the Atlantic 10 Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 8, 2018 in Washington, DC.(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 13: A detail view of the Richmond Spiders logo (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images) /

Bracketology

Dayton is the only team in the league that’s guaranteed anything right now as far as the Big Dance. If they run the table as expected, it would be surprising if they aren’t a 1-seed, but they should be at least a 2-seed even if they only win one game in Brooklyn (and then become 30-3 with a loss). Richmond is right on the bubble at the moment, but they should be able to get on the right side of it by making an appearance in the championship game. They should be extremely grateful that that’s their earliest possible matchup with Dayton.

Saint Louis has been playing good basketball of late, but they wouldn’t be in if the season ended today, and unfortunately for them, unless they beat Dayton (assuming Dayton wins on Friday), they’d only be adding one win to their resume. A win against one of Saint Bonaventure, George Mason, or Saint Joe’s isn’t going to tip the scales with the selection committee. An interesting scenario for the Billikens would arise if they Dayton but then going on to lose in the championship game. Then the Billikens would be 25-9 with a win over a top-3 team in the nation. If that’s the case, they should be able to sneak in.

Those three teams are the only ones that have pathways to the Big Dance that don’t involve cutting down the nets in Brooklyn. Even 3-seed Rhode Island would likely still be on the wrong side of the bubble if they can only add two wins over non-Dayton opponents (just like Richmond, they wouldn’t get to face Dayton until the championship game).

At the end of the day, anywhere from 1-3 bids is possible. If Richmond goes out before the Championship, Saint Louis fails to upset Dayton in the semis, and Dayton goes on to win the whole thing, then the Flyers will be the A10’s only representative. If Saint Louis gets by Dayton but loses to Richmond (or whoever it is in that matchup) in the Championship, then three teams would go dancing. Probably not the year A10 fans were hoping for considering most pundits had the league at 3-4 bids coming in, but it will at least be interesting to watch the scenarios play out.

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