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Southland Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

By Jason Burgess

DALLAS, TX - MARCH 15: Kevon Harris #1 of the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks celebrates against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at American Airlines Center on March 15, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - MARCH 15: Kevon Harris #1 of the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks celebrates against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at American Airlines Center on March 15, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 30: Sha’markus Kennedy #23 and Roydell Brown #22 of the McNeese State Cowboys (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 30: Sha’markus Kennedy #23 and Roydell Brown #22 of the McNeese State Cowboys (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images) /

First round

No. 5 Northwestern State vs. No. 8 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

The Southland tournament gives the top two seeds a bye into the semifinals and the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds get to rest until the quarterfinals.

In the first game of the first round, No. 5 Northwestern State will battle No. 8 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-17, 10-10). The two teams faced off just once this season and the lower-seeded Islanders came away with a 67-62 victory. In that game, the Demons committed 18 turnovers, something they are susceptible to, committing nearly 17 per game this season, and Texas A&M-Corpus-Christi held them to just 36% shooting, nearly 10 points below their season average.

Northwestern State averages over 75 points per game and the 62 they scored in this one were their lowest league total against anyone not named Stephen F. Austin. I think Northwestern State is able to exact some revenge here and move on to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Northwestern State 77 Texas A&M-Corpus-Christi 67

No. 6 Lamar vs. No. 7 McNeese State

The other first-round game sees No. 6 Lamar (16-15, 10-10) taking on No. 7 McNeese State (15-16, 10-10) in the rubber match of a season series that saw each team win on the road. The first game saw Lamar win a high-scoring affair 96-91 with sophomore Davion Buster scoring 39 points on 11-18 from three-point land.

McNeese State won the return engagement 70-66 on the back of a 17-point and 19-rebound effort from Shamarkus Kennedy. The Cowboys’ senior forward is the reason I think McNeese State wins this game, he has averaged 18 points and 16.5 rebounds against Lamar this season and I don’t see Buster or any other Cardinal putting up monster numbers to offset Kennedy.

Prediction: McNeese State 73 Lamar 66

Quarterfinals

No. 4 Sam Houston State vs. No. 5 Northwestern State

In the first quarterfinal, No. 4 Sam Houston State will take on No. 5 Northwestern State in a rematch of their lone meeting which saw the No. 4 Bearkats lead wire-to-wire on their way to winning 92-79. The Demons committed 19 turnovers in the loss, while Sam Houston State had five players in double figures and shot nearly as well from distance (44.4%) as they did overall (44.6%).

Both teams are relatively even offensively, with both having just two players in double figures but both teams averaging over 75 points per game. The difference in this one could come down to rebounding, where Northwestern State has the advantage, I’ll take the Demons to move on to the semifinals in a close game.

Prediction: Northwestern State 76 Sam Houston State 73

No. 3 Nicholls State vs. No. 6 McNeese State

The last quarterfinal pits No. 3 seed the Nicholls State Colonels take on No. 6 McNeese State. The two teams split the season series with each team defending their home floor. In the Cowboys’ win, they needed overtime and double-doubles from Kennedy and A.J. Lawson to dispatch of Nicholls State, and in the Colonels’ victory, they had little trouble winning by 24 and holding McNeese State to just 15 first-half points.

I think in that second meeting they discovered the key to stopping McNeese State is to let Kennedy get his points but limit those around him. In the second game, no other Cowboy scored more than nine points and while I think Kennedy puts up huge numbers, he doesn’t have enough help and the Colonels move on to the semifinals.

Prediction: Nicholls State 78 McNeese State 67