Big West Basketball: 2020 conference tournament preview and predictions

Predictions

Quarterfinals

(1) UC Irvine over (8) Long Beach State

I’m not sure this is much that the Beach can do to win this one. They have the worst scoring differential in the conference, and UC Irvine is just too good to get caught in the first game of the tournament. They may have split their first two meetings, but Long Beach State isn’t going to make 20 threes again.

(5) UC Davis over (5) Hawaii

Third time is the charm for the Aggies in this first-round matchup. Hawaii might be 2-0 against UC Davis, but they only hold a three-point advantage in the season series. Joe Mooney and Stefan Gonzalez are a load on the perimeter and are unlikely to be stifled like they have been in the previous matchups.

(2) Cal State Northridge over (7) CSU Fullerton

Lamine Diane has 59 points, 26 rebounds, and five blocks against the Titans this season, and he will carry the Matadors to victory in this third matchup. The Matadors are going to push the pace, score at least 80, and move on after an exciting back-and-forth game.

(6) UC Riverside over (3) UC Santa Barbara

This prediction assumes Max Heidegger isn’t going to play. Now that the emotions of losing Heidegger have aged, UC Riverside should have an easier time containing the Gaucho offense. The Highlanders will want to make this a game won on the inside, where they have a clear advantage.

Semifinals

*Teams are re-seeded prior to semifinals

(1) UC Irvine over (6) UC Riverside

This is as far as the Highlanders should realistically expect to get. The Anteaters may have the head-to-head advantage at all five positions, and their coach is the best in the conference. This may be the most lopsided victory of the tournament unless the Highlanders force the Anteaters to win a low scoring game.

(2) Cal State Northridge over (5) UC Davis

The Matadors are probably the hottest team in the conference, and fans shouldn’t expect the Aggies to score the 100 points necessary to beat Diane and Gomez. It should be a good game, and the Aggies did win the first two meetings, but CSUN has found their groove and keeps rolling into the finals.

Finals

(1) UC Irvine over (2) Cal State Northridge

Between Collin Welp, Tommy Rutherford and Brad Greene, the Anteaters are the one team equipped to curb the production of Lamine Diane. Their depth and balance should help them handle the runs that the Matadors will inevitably go on, and regain tempo control.

At the end of the day, UC Irvine is the best team in the Big West and should be expected to win, especially without spectators to sway the momentum.