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Bracketology 2020: Storylines to watch in ACC Basketball Tournament

By Joe Weidenburner

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: The NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: The NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /
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SOUTH BEND, IN – MARCH 04: Trent Forrest #3 of the Florida State Seminoles brings the ball up court during the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purcell Pavilion on March 4, 2020 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
SOUTH BEND, IN – MARCH 04: Trent Forrest #3 of the Florida State Seminoles brings the ball up court during the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purcell Pavilion on March 4, 2020 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) /

SEEDING SCENARIOS

How Do the Resumes of Florida St., Duke, and Louisville Measure Up?

What will Championship Week have in store for the three ACC teams likely to garner the highest seeds from the NCAA Selection Committee? For FSU, the ACC tournament holds a remote possibility of getting to the 1-seed line on Selection Sunday, should FSU win out and others, notably Dayton and Baylor, slip up early in their conference tournaments. To be sure, there will be competition for the 1-seed line, with aforementioned Dayton and Baylor holding the inside track, as well as the possibility of the Big East tournament champion pushing through should that be Creighton or Villanova. It’s hard to see FSU dropping below the 2-seed line, even if it is upset by Clemson or Miami.

For Louisville and Duke as well, the ACC tournament holds an opportunity to solidify seeding around the 2, 3, or 4 seed lines. Duke’s predictive metrics are among the best in the country, and its 11-5 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games is very good. The home loss to Stephen F. Austin is not nearly as bad as it initially seemed it would be, and while currently a Quad 3 loss, there is a chance it moves to a Quad 2 loss. SFA is 77th in the NET as of today, and a move up to 75th moves that loss into Quad 2. Duke is favored to win the ACC tournament, and if it makes a run to the title, and if the SFA loss moves to Quad 2, there’s no reason to think the Committee won’t reward the Blue Devils with a 2 seed at MSG.

For Louisville, a deep run in the ACC tournament likely means cementing itself on the 3-seed line, with a remote outside shot at a 2-seed. An early loss to UNC or Syracuse likely portends a 4-seed on Selection Sunday. Any matchups with Florida St., Duke, and Virginia will be Quad 1 opportunities, and Louisville would improve its position greatly bringing its Quad 1 record, currently 4-6, closer to the .500 mark.