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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing cutline as Selection Sunday nears

By Lukas Harkins

The stadium is reflected in bubbles seen ahead of the English Premier League football match between West Ham United and Chelsea at The London Stadium, in east London on December 9, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Ian KINGTON / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo credit should read IAN KINGTON/AFP via Getty Images)
The stadium is reflected in bubbles seen ahead of the English Premier League football match between West Ham United and Chelsea at The London Stadium, in east London on December 9, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Ian KINGTON / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo credit should read IAN KINGTON/AFP via Getty Images) /
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CINCINNATI, OH – FEBRUARY 13: Adams-Woods of the Bearcats defends. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH – FEBRUARY 13: Adams-Woods of the Bearcats defends. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Houston.

Some Perspiration: None.

Double the Deodorant: Wichita State, Cincinnati, Memphis

Long Shots: UConn.

Wichita State Shockers (23-8, NET: 41)

Bracketology Average: IN (67.6% of brackets) – 10.57 seed.

Wichita State is currently on the right side of the projected cutline but only barely. This is due to the fact that the team’s resume is relatively devoid of top-tier wins. The Shockers are just 2-5 in Q1 games this season and the majority of the bubble can boast more victories over highly-regarded teams in the NET. The Shockers’ 7-3 record in Q2 games helps to buoy this issue a bit, as does their lack of bad losses.

As the No. 4 seed in the AAC Tournament, Wichita State will not have to play Houston until the final. In my opinion, the Shockers will dance if they reach the championship game, regardless of whether they win or lose. Losing their opening-round game (to Tulane or UConn) would likely end their at-large hopes while winning one and losing in the semis would keep them sweating right up to Selection Sunday.

Cincinnati Bearcats (20-10, NET: 51)

Bracketology Average: IN (69.0% of brackets) – 11.25 seed.

Cincinnati essentially *is* the cutline for the vast majority of bracketologists right now as this team sits either among the “Last Four In” or “First Four Out” for seemingly everyone. The Bearcats only feature a 2-6 record in Q1 games that leaves plenty to be desired but are 7-0 in Q2 with excellent metric rankings for a bubble team (KPI/SOR: 37.0, BPI/SAG/KP: 42.0). Having four Q3 losses is a killer, especially when competing against teams that do not have any bad losses, such as Wichita State.

Cincinnati has the same instructions as Wichita State for this weekend. The Bearcats will miss out on the Big Dance if they lose their first game in the AAC Tournament, will be sweating if they win only one, and should dance by making the final game. Cincinnati is the No. 1 seed at the AAC Tournament but a tough road awaits.

Memphis Tigers (21-10, NET: 58)

Bracketology Average: OUT (1.4% of brackets).

Memphis sits on the outside-looking-in at the moment with plenty of work to do. This is due to the idea that nothing really stands out on the Tigers’ resume. They do not boast a ton of great wins (2-5 in Q1), have three “bad losses”, and are not held in high regard by efficiency metrics. With that said, they are still in striking range if they make a run to the AAC Tournament final. I believe that to be the Tigers’ only hope of snagging an at-large bid at this point because there are too many teams jockeying for the last couple of spots that Memphis cannot get in with a 2-1 record in its conference tournament.

UConn Huskies (19-12, NET: 60)

Bracketology Average: OUT (1/145 brackets)

UConn has a good record and better metrics than most would believe. The rest of the Huskies’ at-large case is relatively poor outside but a run to the AAC Tournament final might have us looking at their resume differently. This is certainly a longshot for the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament but if it can get past Wichita State and Cincinnati en route to the title game, UConn could leapfrog one or both on the bubble and make things very interesting.

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