Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing cutline as Selection Sunday nears

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RICHMOND, VA – JANUARY 25: Gilyard of the Spiders drives. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Dayton.

Some Perspiration: None.

Double the Deodorant: Richmond.

Long Shots: Saint Louis.

Richmond Spiders (24-7, NET: 38)

Bracketology Average: IN (75.2% of brackets) – 11.08 seed

I think that Richmond should be an NCAA Tournament team. The Spiders have a sparkling record that includes a neutral-site win over Wisconsin, have been way better when healthy (which they are now), and look the part on the eye test. With that said, though, I am not on the Selection Committeee and there is no doubt that Richmond is right on the bubble heading into the final week of the season. This is partially due to the fact that the Spiders’ SOS is not at the same level as some other bubble teams and they only have three Q1 wins – they are a respectable 3-4 in those games, though.

Richmond is currently the second-to-last team in on the Bracket Matrix and is in only a slightly better spot in my own bracketology. With regard to the A10 Tournament, the Spiders need to focus on making the title game. If they get there and face Dayton, they should make the NCAA Tournament regardless of win (obviously) or lose. Reaching the title game would likely require a path through Davidson and Rhode Island.

Saint Louis Billikens (22-8, NET: 49)

Bracketology Average: OUT (0% of brackets)

Saint Louis has quietly put together a great 22-8 record so far this season and earned the No. 4 seed in the A10 Tournament. While I do not think it wise to bet on the Billikens to snag an at-large bid, it’s not entirely out of the question. They will finish the season with <10 losses and if they make the tournament final, that would likely mean beating Dayton along the way.

SLU has relatively solid rankings in the NET and resume-based metrics already but needs to boost its efficiency – that’s the kind of thing that could be remedied by a Top 5 neutral-site win like the opportunity potentially coming against Dayton. It’s not *quite* time to count this group out. (SLU is also a strong bid-stealing candidate as just making the final would not solidify a spot but put them somewhere around the cutline.)

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