Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing cutline as Selection Sunday nears

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LUBBOCK, TEXAS – MARCH 07: Ramsey #3 of the Red Raiders stands (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /

Lead-Pipe Locks: Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia.

Some Perspiration: Oklahoma

Double the Deodorant: Texas Tech, Texas

Long Shots: Oklahoma State

Oklahoma Sooners (19-12, NET: 46)

Bracketology Average: IN (98.6% of brackets) – 9.43 seed.

I think that Oklahoma should be in good shape. The Sooners might not boast an overwhelmingly elite record, but they do have 11 Q1+2 wins and no bad losses. Additionally, all of their metrics rank in the Top 50 so they are rather significantly ahead of most bubble teams. It is also important to mention that Oklahoma will face West Virginia in its first game of the Big 12 Tournament and a loss in that game would not hurt them much at all. The Sooners should dance, and do so with relative ease even if they end up as a double-digit seed.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (18-13, NET: 22)

Bracketology Average: IN (95.2% of brackets) – 10.38 seed

I’ve discussed Texas Tech’s resume a lot this season. While I do still believe that the committee will include the Red Raiders based on their excellent NET and efficiency metric rankings, it would be a mistake to not be a bit nervous. Texas Tech is just 7-13 in Q1+2 games this season and eight of their total victories have come in Q4. Their resume just isn’t very good in comparison to how they look on the eye test. The Red Raiders will face Texas in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. They *might* still get in with a loss, but I wouldn’t count in it. Texas Tech should look to win at least one, possibly two, to lock up a bid.

Texas Longhorns (19-12, NET: 69)

Bracketology Average: OUT (33.1% of brackets)

Texas sits just on the outside-looking-in for most bracketologists (myself included) at this moment. The Longhorns have a strong collection of five Q1 wins but they are only 7-12 in Q1+2 contests. Head coach Shaka Smart’s team has made a significant charge down the stretch of this season but none of its metrics are great and the group has work to do in the Big 12 Tournament.

As already mentioned, Texas’ first matchup of the event will come against a fellow bubble team in Texas Tech. While it is too early to tell how that game will impact the rest of the bubble, it is reasonable to think Texas could rise into the field with a win (perhaps taking TTU’s spot). A win would then likely put them up against Kansas, and a loss there wouldn’t be a killer.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (17-14, NET: 61)

Bracketology Average: OUT (0.7% of brackets)

Oklahoma State would have to get through Iowa State and Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament in order to reach the semifinals. If the Cowboys are able to pull that off, though, bracketologists will start to give far more consideration to their resume. OK State started the season well but tailed off in conference play. With that said, their metrics are still all within the Top 61 and they are 9-14 in Q1+2 with no bad losses. This team is not out of consideration quite yet.

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