NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 predictions
Bottom-half of South Region
(6) Virginia vs. (11) Wichita State
Danny Priest
Last year’s defending champions in the Virginia Cavaliers overcame a slow start to begin the season and go into the tournament riding high after wins against No. 10 Louisville and No. 7 Duke in the closing matchups of the year. Meanwhile, Wichita State was just 2-3 to finish out their regular-season slate. Both of these teams are top 35 in the country in points allowed, but the Cavaliers have the championship experience and poise to carry into the tournament. I expect Jamie Echenique and the Shockers to put up a fight, but in the end, the Cavaliers have enough to get it done.
Virginia 59, Wichita State 53
Curtis Wilkerson
Here we have a pair of teams who seemed to be trending in opposite directions down the stretch of the season. Virginia has been red hot after a rough start to the season. They have only lost one game since the calendar turned to February and climbed their way up to a 2nd place tie in the ACC. Wichita State, on the other hand, raced out to a 15-1 start to the season but have essentially been a .500 team throughout a majority of conference play and just backed their way into the field.
We all know what to expect when a Tony Bennett team hits its’ stride. I’d expect Virginia to be suffocating defensively, eventually wearing down the Shockers. The Cavs get just enough offense from Diakite, Clark, and Key and defeat Wichita State in one of their patented low scoring affairs.
Virginia 60, Wichita State 53
Erik Mauro
The Hoos had a bit of a down year, but that was to be expected after losing Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and DeAndre Hunter. Tony Bennett had a tough time getting his guys going but they picked it up near the end of the season, losing just one game in February and March, beating Duke and Louisville and finishing 15-5 in the conference.
Some coaches and teams just have it, and Bennett’s squad consistently has it year in and year out. It’s not always pretty but his style gets the job done. Like always, the Cavaliers play stout defense, leading the nation in scoring defense yielding just 52.4 PPG, and don’t foul, tied for the nation’s fewest amount of fouls at 397. Veterans Mamadi Diakite and Braxton Key led the Hoos, and returning guard Kihei Clark improved notably this year to make up for some of the losses.
The Shockers make their return to the Big Dance after a detour to the NIT last season. This may be a tough game for the Shocks since most of their entire team has entered the transfer portal, including their top two leading scorers in Jamarius Burton and Erik Stevenson. Freshmen Noah Fernandes and DeAntoni Gordon have also put their names in.
Wichita State blazed out of the gate to a 15-1 start but was then hit by a plethora of off-field problems and stumbled to a 23-8 finish. Issues from a disconnect with coach Gregg Marshall to players caring more about the name on the back of the uniform. Stevenson addressed the issues after a 33-point drubbing at Houston saying “we need to put our egos aside.”
With these issues lingering and players leaving, it’s hard to see the Shockers having much of a chance in this one. The foundation that was set this year looks to be all gone as well.
Virginia 72, Wichita State 51
(3) Maryland vs. (14) UC Irvine
Priest
Looking at the raw statistics alone, Maryland and U.C. Irvine aren’t far off from one another. The Terrapins average 71.8 points per game and they’re 45th in the nation allowing 64.5 points per game. The Anteaters averaged 74 points per game they are 62nd in the nation allowing 65.2 points per game. The difference here will come in star power. The duo of Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith should thrive for Maryland. The Anteaters, led by Colin Welp’s 13 points per game will spread the scoring around, but late in games the Terp’s have guys they can rely on.
Maryland 69, U.C. Irvine 58
Wilkerson
Maryland has taken their lumps at times this season, which is understandable in a ridiculously good Big 10. That being said, they have also looked the part of a contender at times and made it through the gauntlet tied atop the toughest league in the country. UC Irvine may not have the team they did last year, but they are still dangerous and find their way into the field after getting the auto-bid out of the Big West.
A year ago, I would have been very tempted to take the Anteaters in the upset. This year? Sorry, I just do not see it happening. UC Irvine rides some hot shooting from three to keep things interesting in the first half, but in the end, Anthony Cowan Jr and Co. are too much.
Maryland 81, UC Irvine 65
Erik Mauro
The Terps became the Terps once again this year in the Big Ten. They tied for first in the conference with a 14-6 record.
Veterans Anthony Cowan and potential lottery pick Jalen Smith led Maryland on the floor, Cowan averaging 16 PPG and five assists, and Smith averaging a double-double with 15/11, while shooting 37% from deep. Sophomore Aaron Wiggins adds another 10 points. This is a well-rounded team with good bench players to boot. Ricky Lindo, Danta Scott, and Makhi Mitchell all provide different roles off the bench. Scott and Mitchell are good rebounders, while Lindo shoots 66 percent from the floor.
The Anteaters are becoming a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament. 2020 could have been their third appearance in six years. Four players average double figures and the Eaters start two players 6’8 or bigger. UCI’s leading scorer is Colin Welp, who is 6’9 and doesn’t start. There is a lot of height on this team and they love to spread the wealth. Welp averages 13 points a game, Evan Leonard and Eyassu Worku both average 12, and Tommy Rutherford averages 10 a game.
Welp and Worku can both light it up from downtown. Welp is a 44 percent shooter, and Worku is at 40 percent. This team can beat you in so many ways, as they are also a plus-9 in the rebound department, which is to be expected with all the height.
Maryland, however, is top-50 in scoring defense, giving up just 64.5 points per game. This is a more even game than seedings say. Russ Turner can really coach his team, and Mark Turgeon’s coaching has been brought into question many times during his time leading the Terps. If you remember, UCI beat Kansas State last year as a 13-seed, and this game is ripe for an upset as well.
UC Irvine 74, Maryland 68
(7) Houston vs. (10) Arizona State
Matthew Travis
Houston vs. Arizona State is an interesting matchup, on one hand, you’ve got an Arizona State team that was 10-12 against quad one and two opponents but is 6-4 in their last 10 and then on the other you’ve got Houston who was 13-8 against quad one and two opponents and 7-3 in their last 10 with wins in each of their last four. Houston is easily the hotter team going into this one but this game will be won based on who has the better backcourt. Both the Cougars and Sun Devils have great duos with Caleb Mills and Quentin Grimes for Houston and Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge jr. for Arizona State. Overall, I think Houston will be the team that comes out with the win in this one as they’re the hotter team coming into it.
Houston 74, Arizona State 68
Jay Anderson
The Houston Cougars are led by head coach Kelvin Sampson in the 2020 NCAA Tournament and coming off a 26-8 season, 13-5 in American Athletic Conference action, to finish in a three-way tie for the regular-season crown. They’re led by a trio of sophomores Quentin Grimes and Nate Hinton and freshman Caleb Mills. Mills averaged 13.2 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game off the bench. Led by their backcourt, they’re a strong defensive group that ranks 12th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 62.1 points per contest. They’ll face a tough Sun Devils squad, but they should be up for it.
The Arizona State Sun Devils aren’t as guard-heavy as the Cougars, given what junior forward Romello White can do, 10.2 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, but they could definitely use more wins in the win column at 20-11 and third in the PAC-12 at 11-7. They’ll come into the game having dropped three of their last four games, which doesn’t bode well against a tough defensive team like the Cougars. While they should put a solid fight, Houston should come given they’re 6-0 at neutral site games and the Sun Devils are just 3-4.
While both teams rank in the middle of the pack in scoring offense, defense and coaching is where things will come into play. The Cougars have had their fair share of challenges in conference action and passed those with flying colors, against Arizona State, they should find victory down the stretch.
Houston 72, Arizona State 65
Trenton Corn
I have Houston getting the W against Arizona State. The Cougars are 7th in the nation in opponent FG percentage, allowing a shooting percentage of just 38.3 percent. Arizona State was looking like a trendy upset pick during the back half of the season, as they ripped off 7 wins in a row, one key win against a very good Oregon team. But after that, the Sun Devils dropped 3 straight and won only one of their last four games entering the conference tournament. With Houston’s stout defense, and their advantage on the boards, (41.5 rebounds a game compared to 36) I think the
Houston 68, Arizona State 57
Houston gets a 3-0 sweep
(2) Creighton vs. (15) North Dakota State
Travis
This one shouldn’t be much of a game, 2 vs. 15 is usually never too much of a matchup and this game won’t change anything. Creighton really turned it on at the end of the year and finished the season with a 9-1 record in their final 10 games and a 26-7 record overall. North Dakota State also finished the season 9-1 and won the Summit League, but it was obviously against lesser opponents. Creighton has wins against Seton Hall (2x), Villanova, Butler and Marquette (2x). This one is going to be a blowout as the Bluejays will overpower the Bison.
Creighton 89, North Dakota State 63
Anderson
The Creighton Bluejays find themselves as a No. 2 seed after finishing 13-5 in the Big East and 26-7 overall on the season heading into March Madness. They went 9-1 across their last 10 games heading into conference tournament play and seemed to be peaking at the right time. Sophomore guard Marcus Zegarowski has led the offensive charge with 16.1 points, 5.0 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game. Junior guard Ty-Shon Alexander leads the scoring with 16.9 points per game along with 5.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals per contest. Given the damage they’ve done along with their supporting cast, it’s hard to foresee Creighton not living up to their seeding in this one.
The North Dakota State Bison come into the NCAA Tournament on a five-game winning streak and boast a record of 25-8 on the season. Despite their 13-3 record in the Summit League and regular-season title, they’ve yet to face a team quite like Creighton this season. In nonconference action, they did go 8-5 with a loss to Big East-foe Marquette back Dec. 20. With that being said, Vinnie Sahid and Tyson Ward aren’t two senior guards to sleep on and should put up a solid fight.
The Big East meets The Summit League in the NCAA Tournament and in this one, the bigger conference should prevail, though it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Bison keep things interesting for much of the contest.
Creighton 75, North Dakota State 71
Corn
North Dakota State (25-8) won 5 games in a row and was one of the few teams that got to “punch” their ticket into the big dance, winning the Summit League conference tournament. Their 5th time going dancing in school history is a short one, however, as they have to run into a 2 seeded Creighton team (24-7). The Blue Jays were the 20th best scoring offense in the nation, shooting 47.10 percent as a team (24th in the nation), including shooting 38.60% from three (9th in the nation). They have four guys scoring double figures a game, with two others in striking distance with 9.4 and 8.6 a game. North Dakota’s three double-digit scorers (next leading scorer after the trio is 6.6 ppg) will get overwhelmed in this one.