NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 predictions
West Region (bottom-half)
(6) Iowa vs. (11) East Tennessee State
Jason Burgess
In a prototypical matchup between these two seeds, the strongest mid-major of the season, East Tennessee State takes on Iowa. Like many others like it, this game will be closer than the casual fan probably expects. Steve Forbes’ Buccaneers lead at the half and have many people thinking this will be another No. 12 seed taking down a No. 5, but the second half becomes the Luka Garza show, as the senior center carries Iowa into the next round with a 20-point and 15-rebound game.
Iowa 74, East Tennessee State 68
Tim Miller
No doubt this would be a fun one. I’m not sure ETSU would have much success containing Luka Garza, even with 7’0 Lucas N’ Guessan having enough size to go up against the Big Ten player of the year. But, I’m also not sure if Iowa’s backcourt would be able to match the quickness, depth, and talent of the ETSU’s guards. The Buccaneers had five players with multiple 20 plus point games this season, despite not have a player on the roster average over 30 minutes a game.
Overall, I think I’ll place my trust in Steve Forbes’ team to take care of the ball and their ability to get a higher percentage of stops on the defensive side over an Iowa team who lost three of its last four games. Both of these teams would have the potential to make deep tournaments runs, but I’m riding with the balance of this ETSU team.
East Tennessee State 72, Iowa 69
Jake Verboven
Luka Garza has had an All-American season in his junior campaign with the Hawkeyes. Putting up numbers that had never been seen before, while leading Iowa through the toughest conference in the sport. East Tennessee State has eclipsed 30 wins in 2020, including a current 12 game win streak leading into the tournament.
Garza will get his points, but the veteran-led Buccaneers won’t let this opportunity squander. Big games by senior guards Tray Boyd and Isiah Tisdale will be enough to extend their season another game. Seven-foot senior, Lucas N’Guessan, will also provide the necessary size to bother Garza and the other Hawkeyes at the rim.
ETSU 73, Iowa 67
The 11 seed moves on with a 2-1 upset
(3) Seton Hall vs. (14) Belmont
Burgess
The Belmont Bruins backdoored their way to the Ohio Valley championship and now find themselves facing No. 3 Seton Hall. This could be a high-scoring affair with Belmont averaging over 79 points per game and the Pirates at north of 74. Like they were under longtime coach Rick Byrd, Belmont is a team that succeeds by having every player contribute in every way. Seton Hall is led by Myles Powell, who will go off for at least 25 in this one, but it is Seton Hall’s stronger supporting cast with the likes of Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jared Rhoden and Romaro Gill that will get Seton Hall the win.
Seton Hall 78, Belmont 68
Miller
Casey Alexander did a fine job picking up where Rick Byrd left off. Belmont might not have had a Dylan Windler or Kevin McClain this season, but this team still managed to emerge from the OVC with a well-organized offensive attack and about as lethal three-point shooting barrage as ever. It just so happens Seton Hall had a tendency to struggle with teams displaying the ability to play some small-ball and spread out opposing defenses (think Creighton).
Down the stretch, the Pirates looked like a team with all the pieces when things were clicking (Miles Powell and Quincy McKnight hitting shots on one end with Romaro Gill swatting them on the other). But Kevin Willard’s team also went through some ugly stretches where they couldn’t find consistent offense besides Powell taking things into his own hands most possessions.
I see point guard Grayson Murphy setting the table nicely for Belmont getting off to a hot start. With that said, at some point the size and depth of Seton Hall, especially in the frontcourt, would push this veteran squad past a sluggish start.
Seton Hall 82, Belmont 75
Verboven
Casey Alexander has done a phenomenal job taking over for coaching legend, Rick Byrd, in year 1. They come into the dance red hot riding a 12 game win streak. The Bruins have shooters at every position 1 through 5 and will stretch any defense they face. Seton Hall has stumbled to the finish line losing 4 of their last 7, but has one of the best scorers in the nation in Myles Powell.
Seton Hall will have the size underneath to eliminate Muszynski with Gill (7’2’’, 3.2 BPG) and Obiago (7’2’’, 1.2 BPG). They also have elite perimeter defenders in McKnight (1.5 SPG) and Kale (1 SPG). Between this defense forcing Belmont into difficult 3 point attempts and Powell’s and Mamukelashvili’s scoring the Pirates should have minimal issues taking down the Bruins.
Seton Hall 83, Belmont 70
Pirates move on with a 3-0 sweep
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Indiana
Jacob Zinkula
Saint Mary’s had a solid showing in the WCC tournament and will have the best player on the floor in Jordan Ford. Combine this with some of Indiana’s struggles down the stretch (2-3 in last five), and the Gaels are likely the popular pick.
That being said, Saint Mary’s has been extremely vulnerable on the interior since Matthias Tass suffered a season-ending injury, something the Hoosiers should be able to exploit. Led by Trayce Jackson-Davis, the Hoosiers get to the line and crash the offensive glass at top 50 rates nationally. A strong performance from Ford should keep the game close throughout, but Indiana’s dominance on the interior will prove insurmountable.
Indiana 67, Saint Mary’s 64
Sydney Chesser
These two teams look unbeatable when their high scoring offense is in synch. The difference makers will likely be lead scorer Jordan Ford for Saint Mary’s, and Trayce Jackson-Davis for Indiana, who also leads his team in points, rebounds, and blocks.
Expect a close scoring first half with Saint Mary’s pulling away in the second half and finding a way to capitalize on Indiana’s struggle to close out games all the way through.
Saint Mary’s 79, Indiana 71
Tristan Freeman
Jordan Ford and his ability to score is right up there with the Myles Powells and Markus Howards of the world. Indiana has no individual player who can match that, hoping that their balance will be just enough to overcome the Gaels. The big difference will be Hoosier big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, who Saint Mary’s has no answer for inside.
Indiana 73, Saint Mary’s 68
Hoosiers prevail with a 2-1 spilt win
San Diego State (2) v. Little Rock (15)
Zinkula
San Diego State may have struggled a bit down the stretch, but this team is no fraud (top ten in almost all the predictive metrics). Whether or not Nathan Mensah is able to return, it’s hard to imagine Malachi Flynn letting the Aztecs fall victim to an early upset.
Little Rock gets to the foul line at the second-highest rate in the country and won a tournament game as recently as 2016 with Chris Beard at the helm. But although the program may get the chance to play Cinderella next season, this year’s Trojans squad is just too young (324th in experience per KenPom). Expect San Diego State to prove the doubters wrong (at least in round one).
San Diego St 78, Little Rock 61
Chesser
Both teams topped their conference at the end of the regular season and Little Rock had an incredible season after being projected to finish 11th in the Sun Belt Conference. However, San Diego State has looked like a legitimate Final Four contender throughout the season after starting 26-0. Although SDSU has fallen victim to an unexpected upset this season, Little Rock is under matched against San Diego State’s high powered offense. San Diego State will be able to control the tempo and ball movement from very early on.
San Diego State 83, Little Rock 64
Freeman
Little Rock has both the size inside and the elite scorer in Markquis Nowell to make things interesting in the first 30 minutes. But San Diego State, coming off a loss to Utah State in the Mountain West Tournament finals, who not be going down in the first round. They aren’t built to blow teams out but the Aztecs will have room in the final couple of minutes.