NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 predictions
Midwest Region (top-half)
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Siena
Michael Walton
This matchup would be one of the slower-paced matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Per KenPom Baylor is 277th and Siena 261at in adjusted PACE. Despite slow and steady being the name of the game, Siena won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with their offense.
The Saints can shoot it from the perimeter (35.5% from 3-point range) and get to the charity stripe (20.3 FTA per game). so their offense is diverse despite running mostly through dynamic guard Jalen Pickett. Baylor however, was one of the best teams in the nation, a top-5 (No. 4) defense per KenPom. The Bears can easily score in the 70s while playing a slow pace like Siena. The Bears have a whopping four defenders averaging a steal or better per game, so I would the Bears– MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler specifically –to wear down Pickett. Baylor’s defenders would chase Pickett around screens, off the 3-point line, and ultimately turn him into an inefficient midrange shooter. Baylor would ride their physical defense to a no-frills win.
Baylor 74, Siena 55
John Vaccaro
Anything other than a Baylor win in this matchup would absolutely be shocking. However, I don’t think it would be all that surprising to see this be the closest 1-16 game in this year’s tournament.
Baylor has far more talent than Siena, but Siena has one area where they could give Baylor some trouble and keep themselves in the game. Siena is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, while Baylor is only 219th in defensive rebounding percentage. That alone won’t be enough to win this for Siena, but it should keep them in the game against an opponent that won’t overwhelm them with scoring ability.
Baylor is better everywhere else and should never be in danger of losing this game, but also isn’t able to pull away like we usually expect from 1 seeds.
Baylor 65, Siena 52
Bryan Mauro
Baylor has been one of the best teams in the country all season and has earned its one seed. While they don’t have a “star” Freddie Gillespie and Jared Butler lead the balanced attack for the Bears. Baylor is the premier offensive rebounding team in the country led by Mark Vital and they play a lockdown style of defense that makes scoring on them very hard.
Siena is back in the tournament by way of the MAAC auto bid. The Saints got hot at the end of the year and are led by their all MAAC selections in Manny Camper, Elijah Burns and MAAC player of the year Jalen Pickett. Siena is going to be overmatched in this one as Baylor rolls to a victory
Baylor 65, Siena 48
Baylor handily gets a 3-0 sweep
(8) Colorado vs. (9) Providence
Walton
The Buffs and Friars are both teams that settle into games with their attention to detail on defense. Colorado forward Tyler Bey is an amazing singular talent, at 6-foot-7 with fluid movements, he can lock down a variety of archetypes while also putting up buckets for the Buffaloes. That being said, diminutive Providence guard Luwane Pipkins is a different kind of challenge altogether. Pipkins is averaging 20.4 points over his last five games and in the one game I didn’t include– a win over then No. 10 Seton Hall –teammate Alpha Diallo, the team’s leading scorer, had 35 points.
Colorado has the defensive personnel to lock down one of Providence’s go-to scorers, but Pipkins would be able to get loose for a big-time scoring performance. In a game that would come down to the very end and likely to coaching adjustments, Ed Cooley and the Providence Friars would come out on top.
Colorado 79, Providence 84
Vaccaro
Providence has been absolutely on fire lately, winning 6 in a row to end the regular season. Colorado has gone in the opposite direction, losing their last 5. The weird thing about this matchup is that Colorado should be able to neutralize a lot of Providence’s strengths. They should be able to keep the Friars off the offensive glass and the free throw line, which are the two areas where they generate a lot of their offense. They should be able to win a defensive struggle. Unfortunately, it is just unbelievably difficult to actually trust them to do that right now.
Providence has been playing their best basketball lately and has shown that they can beat some of the best teams in the country during that time. Momentum plays a big role in the NCAA tournament and it is clearly on Providence’s side right now. In the end, I think Providence makes life difficult for a struggling Colorado offense and is able to claim the win pretty convincingly down the stretch.
Providence 66, Colorado 58
Mauro
Two teams that have taken different paths to the tournament. Colorado played well at the beginning of the season and fell off late in the season taking some head-scratching losses. Providence, on the other hand, is the complete opposite. The Friars started the year looking like one of the worst power conference teams losing to Northwestern and Long Beach State before playing like one of the best power fives in the country late.
One of the premier matchups in the tournament with Luwane Pipkins of Providence vs McKinley Wright of Colorado. Those two players are a big reason both of these teams are back in the tournament. Two players to keep an eye on who can make a difference is Kalif Young for Providence and Evan Battey of Colorado. Those guys can change a game when they are going well. Providence is just playing to well.
Providence 78, Colorado 75
Friars move on with a 2-1 win
(4) Kentucky vs. (13) New Mexico State
Trevor Sinodhinos
As a 13 seed New Mexico State was going to be in for a difficult test regardless, but getting Kentucky as a 4 seed seems particularly unfortunate for Chris Jans’ squad.
From top to bottom Kentucky has the advantage. The greatest being at the guard spot. Kentucky will use that advantage to push the pace of play closer to their preferred 68.5 possessions per game than to New Mexico State’s 64.6. Since Kentucky makes 50% of their field goals, the extra possessions mean something.
Even in the difficult SEC Kentucky keeps opponents point totals under that of New Mexico’s average of 69.6. Once New Mexico State falls behind it will be difficult for them to make up ground due to Kentucky’s impressive free-throw shooting. While New Mexico State averages just under 9 made threes per game, Kentucky only lets up 7. There is no reason to believe that New Mexico State will have their best game of the season versus Kentucky.
Kentucky 84, New Mexico State 63
Cody Larson
Many might view Kentucky as a vulnerable high-seeded team going into the tournament, with their early season loss against Evansville as Exhibit A. This is not the same Kentucky team though. This is a team with a surging Immanuel Quickley and an elite-level post presence in Nick Richards.
I see those two having a big performance alongside the trustworthy floor general work from Ashton Hagans. Coach Cal seemed high on his team this year and that’s for good reason. New Mexico State has the experience, but Kentucky’s elite level talent and size/athleticism overwhelm in this first-round matchup.
Kentucky 82, New Mexico State 71
Logan Butts
This New Mexico State squad is good. They dominated the WAC, going unbeaten in conference play, and barring a huge upset probably would have sleepwalked through the WAC Tournament had it not been canceled. But despite the gaudy record (28-6) and the killer depth, the Aggies are not as good as they were last year. They nearly (and probably should have) upset Final Four-bound Auburn in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. That team was truly back.
Despite bringing back most of the backbone of last year’s squad, I don’t think this year’s team is anywhere near that level, so another close call upset of a more talented SEC squad is not in the cards. Kentucky’s dynamic young backcourt of Immanuel Quickley, Tyrese Maxey, and Ashton Hagans, plus the inside presence of Nick Richards, will prove to be too much for Chris Jans and his crew.
Kentucky 75, New Mexico State 58
Wildcats move on with a 3-0 sweep
(5) BYU vs. (12) Texas Tech
Sinodhinos
This is the traditional 12 versus 5 upset that everybody should be using a pen to fill out their bracket with. BYU’s win over Gonzaga late in the season will give some the false sense that BYU is an actual contender, but that should quickly be dismissed, when BYU’s dependence on a high three-point shooting percentage is taken into account.
BYU and Texas Tech have a common opponent this season in the form of Kansas. While Texas Tech lost twice to Kansas by a total of seven points, BYU losts71-56 to Kansas. In addition. even in the loss, Texas Tech held Kansas to 10% lower than their average from beyond the arc. On the season the Red Raiders held.opponents to 31%, where the Bulldogs made 42% of three-pointers attempted, but Texas Tech has held teams like Louisville and West Virginia below their average 3 point percentage and will do the same to BYU.
BYU does have an advantage when it comes to experience, but the Red Raiders have experience playing quality teams. With both teams being comfortable playing around the 68-69 pace of play, the athleticism and the ability they have shown in holding opponents to just 63.5 points per game will shine through for Texas Tech.
Texas Tech 72, BYU 65
Larson
BYU and Texas Tech were two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum heading into the tournament. BYU was coming off of a huge win over Gonzaga, while Texas Tech was fighting a 4 game losing streak. This game is a major clash of styles with BYU having a top-ranked offense that shoots better than anyone from 3-point range (making 41.9 percent of their threes), while Texas Tech ranks 9th in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
Texas Tech and Chris Beard showed how effective their defensive scheme can be in March last season, but this year’s team is much younger. In contrast, BYU is the 8th most experienced team in college. Despite Texas Tech’s pressure on the perimeter, BYU’s veteran shooters will be unfazed and advance to the next round.
BYU 68, Texas Tech 65
Butts
Texas Tech is better than their record suggests. The NET rankings have them 22nd in the nation. They have played a ton of top-level teams close, but most of those games ended up with the Red Raiders in the losing column. They lost to Kansas and Baylor alone five teams, each by single digits. They really miss Jarrett Culver as a go-to guy at the end of games, or even just the steadying presence of Matt Mooney.
Meanwhile, BYU has a pair of late-game killers in Yoeli Childs and TJ Haws, one of the best inside-out combos in the country and one of the best mid-major duos all season long. You won’t catch me betting against a pair of seniors like that (not to mention Jake Toolson!) in March.