NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 predictions
Midwest Region (bottom-half)
(6) Penn State vs. (11) Utah State
Neil Adler
This is an enticing match-up in the round of 64, with sixth-seeded Penn State and it’s special 2019-20 season going up against No. 11 seed Utah State, which finished in a three-way tie for second place in the Mountain West Conference.
From a statistical perspective, the Aggies actually score more points per contest, and allow fewer points on defense, than the Nittany Lions. Utah State also holds an edge in rebounding, and second-chance points via the offensive glass could prove critical.
Neither crew shoots especially well from beyond the arc, although Penn State will have to contain Aggies senior guard Sam Merrill, who connects on 41.0 percent from deep.
Ultimately, while Utah State is a solid group, the Nittany Lions traversed through the rugged Big Ten Conference in a tie with Ohio State for fifth place. Penn State is battle-tested, and it has a tremendous talent in senior forward Lamar Stevens. The Nittany Lions advance.
Penn State 73, Utah State 68
Jake Matteson
This might be the most intriguing game on the docket. Utah State is riding high after the Merrill Miracle to knock off San Diego State and earn the auto-bid. Top-50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, Craig Smith’s Aggies could be the darling double-digit seed to do some damage despite their infrequencies at time. However, this has been a dream season for Penn State fans and even a 21 win season feels like some has left them off the radar. Senior duo Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins combine for 14.5 rebounds. Given their strength defensively (23rd in the country) and the emergence of sophomore Myreon Jones, give me the Nittany Lions to send the trendy Cinderalla pick packing.
Penn St 75, Utah St 68
Ryan Kay
Penn State has lost five out of their last six games including a loss at Northwestern. The Nittany Lions prior to their home loss against Illinois, Penn State had won eight straight games and ranked No. 13 in the country. Utah State has won nine out of their last ten games with their only loss during that period was a two-point defeat on the road. Aggie’s last game was a 59-56 victory over No. 5 San Diego State to win the Mountain West tournament.
Penn State enters the tournament ranked #26 in the KenPom rankings and #35 in the Net rankings and in comparison, Utah State goes into the tournament ranked 41 in the KenPom rankings and 40 in the Net rankings. The Aggies have the advantage of coming into the tournament playing well and the Nittany Lions have the benefit of playing in the toughest conference in America for the past two months.
Utah State is the popular pick to pull the upset having defeated top-five ranked San Diego State. The Aggies also have senior guard Sam Merrill was named the MVP of the Mountain West tournament for the second straight year. In comparison, Penn State is a team that could easily be upset due to the fact that they have not played well as of late. However, this matchup is not as easy to predict as one may think.
The Aggies have three senior guards in Merrill, Abel Porter and Diogo Brito to give them an experience that is valued in the NCAA tournament. They have some talented players in sophomore center Neemias Queta as well. However, Penn State has more in comparison. The Nittany Lions have senior forward Lamar Stevens who is determined to not go out losing in the first round. Penn State also has sophomore guards Myreon Jones and Myles Dread. Senior forward Mike Watkins and Stevens hold down the backline on defense.
The Nittany Lions have more depth as nine players average nearly 15 minutes or more per game compared to the Aggies has seven players who average over 15 minutes or more per game. This will be a tough grind it out a game that will go do to the final minutes.
Penn State 77, Utah State 74
Nittany Lions gets a 3-0 sweep
(3) Duke vs. (14) Bradley
Adler
Bradley, which captured the Missouri Valley Conference post-season title, will have its hands full when meeting up with Duke, a squad out of the Atlantic Coast Conference that possessed a few head-scratching losses in 2019-20 but has the talent to win the Big Dance.
The No. 14 seed Braves, tied for third in their league’s regular-stanza race, don’t produce points in droves, but they have a credible defense that gives up 65.9 points per encounter. Without question, Bradley will have to slow down the pace versus the Blue Devils, a team that is among the highest-scoring in the country, at 82.5 points a game.
Duke, which finished one affair behind Florida State in the ACC’s regular term, better focus on the perimeter. The Braves, collectively, hit on 37.2 percent from 3-point land. By extension, Bradley senior guard Nate Kennell goes for an impressive 44.7 percent from 3-point range.
However, the Blue Devils boast an underrated defense. As long as third-seeded Duke doesn’t get careless with the unforced mistakes, it will come away with a conquest. The Braves, in the end, won’t have a sustainable answer for the Blue Devils’ inside-out tandem of sophomore guard Tre Jones and freshman center Vernon Carey Jr.
Duke 81, Bradley 66
Matteson
Coach K has had some unceremonious exits in the early rounds of March over the years and let me tell you something….this isn’t one of those games. At 23-11, Bradley won their conference and throughout the season beat just one KenPom Top 100 team in Kansas State way back in November. Expect Duke to overwhelm and outman the Braves. The ACC Player of The Year, Tre Jones, would enjoy picking apart the Braves defense who struggles to put pressure on the ball ranking 318th in steal%.
Look for Vernon Carey to do what he does best and feast upon this undersized OVC squad, who only has two players over the height of 6’10” whom Carey outweighs by 30-40 pounds respectively. Oh, and Cassius Stanley provides a .gif or two that you’re likely to favorite and re-tweet a few times.
Duke 88, Bradley 65
Kay
Duke has had a roller coaster ride of a season with highs having won at Michigan State, beating Kansas on a neutral court, and defeating Florida State at home. The lows have been losing to Stephen F. Austin on their home court as well as losing at Wake Forest and Clemson. However, the Blue Devils are a very talented team that can make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.
Bradley like Utah State won their conference tournament and has been playing really well of late.
The Braves enters the NCAA tournament having won eight of their last ten games and have defeated some decent Missouri Valley teams in that time span. Unlike Duke, Bradley doesn’t have an impressive non-conference victory as they lost to power five conference schools like Kansas State and Northwestern. This matchup, however, is more lopsided than one may think.
The Blue Devils not being a one or two seed makes them vulnerable to an upset as the Braves showed grit and fight as they lead at halftime against Michigan State in last season’s NCAA tournament. This Bradley team is better and more experienced than last year’s team and some may suggest that they can pull off this upset. However, Duke has played a tougher schedule and has shown the ability to play very well when it really matters.
The Blue Devils have two great players in freshmen center Vernon Carey Jr. and sophomore guard Tre Jones. Even though Duke lost three top 8 NBA lottery picks from last season’s team, this year’s team is still very talented at multiple positions. Bradley has three players averaging double digits per game in scoring in guards Darrell Brown and Nate Kennell as well as forward Elijah Childs. All three are upperclassmen who bring experience and they will give a young Duke team problems in the 1st half. However, in the second half, the talented Blue Devils pull away and advance to the 2nd round.
Duke 81, Bradley 68
Duke moves on with a 3-0 sweep
(7) Illinois vs. (10) USC
Max Hastings
In his 3rd season as head coach of the Fighting Illini, Brad Underwood has finally found his footing in the Big 10. With the help of his dynamic inside-out duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, Underwood’s Illinois squad won more games in Big 10 conference play than his first 2 years combined, going 13-7 and finishing 4th in the conference.
On the other side, Coach Andy Enfield’s Trojans have bounced back quite nicely after an extremely disappointing 2019 campaign. Led by their own dynamic inside-out duo of Onyeka Okongwu and Jonah Matthews, USC went 11-7 in conference play, good for 3rd place in the Pac-12.
As famed UFC announcer Mike Goldberg used to say, the way these 2 teams play are “virtually identical”. Both are defensive-minded teams, relying on their two stars to generate most of their offense so the rest of the team can focus all their energy on the defensive side. The team’s both rank inside the top 100 in the nation in opponent FG% and total rebounds, doing a great job of forcing bad shots from their opponents and then cleaning up their misses, limiting second-chance opportunities.
This is one of the most intriguing matchups in the entire tournament. Considering these two team’s extremely similar styles, expect this game to come down to the wire, ending in an old fashioned hero-ball duel with Dosunmu and Cockburn trading blow for blow with Okungwu and Matthews down the stretch. It could go either way, but I’m going with the Illini and the best player on the floor Dosunmu hitting a clutch jumper with just seconds left on the clock, much as he did against Michigan earlier this season. Underwood’s best season as a head coach continues on.
Illinois 66, USC 64
Connor Hope
This game shapes up to be an absolute battle in the paint. The USC Trojans have possibly the most talented frontcourt player in the country in Onyeka Okongwu, while the Fighting Illini will trot out Kofi Cockburn, who stands 7’0″ and 290 pounds. Neither player will stretch the floor, but their strength and size should force the double-teams necessary to open up the perimeter.
With the frontcourts essentially neutralizing each other for stretches in this game, the winner will have to get it done on the perimeter. While Ayo Dosunmu and the Illinois backcourt have been better than the Trojans, their size and perimeter defense could be their downfall. All Jonah Mathews and Daniel Utomi need to do is make four to five three-point shots to give USC a chance to win this game.
USC 65, Illinois 63
Donovan Darlington
Head Coach Brad Underwood and his young Fighting Illini have done an excellent job at remaining competitive in a very wild Big Ten race. Whenever things seemed to not go their way, the Illini always answered the doubt with a few key victories to get back on track. Southern Cal has done a great job at staying near the top of the PAC 12, but I think the Trojans will be given all they can handle, and then some by Illinois. Freshman forward, Onyeka Okungwu of Southern Cal is physical enough to limit Kofi Cockburn; however, I think the Illinois backcourt, led by sophomore, Ayo Dosunmu, will be a big problem. Illinois wins big.
Illinois 75, USC 59
Illinois squeaks by with a 2-1 vote
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Northern Kentucky
Hastings
While the Wildcats weren’t as dominant as I predicted at the beginning of the season this year, they were able to get back to the style of basketball that they won 2 championships in the past 4 seasons. After ranking a disappointing 134th nationally in 3P%, coach Jay Wright had his back to being deadly efficient from beyond the arc, ranking 51st this season. This was helped by the continued growth of sophomore Saddiq Bey and junior Connor Gillespie, who took the reins from graduating seniors Phil Booth and Eric Pashcall as team leaders and were much more efficient shooting the ball. Especially in Bey’s case, as he shot a ridiculous 45% from 3 on just under 6 attempts per game, leading the Big East in that category.
In the other corner, the Norse amazingly were once again a dominant force in the Horizon league just their 5th season as a full-time Division 1 program. After 3 extremely successful seasons with the squad, coach John Brannen left to replace Mick Cronin in Cincinnati, leading Northern Kentucky to turn to former Western Kentucky coach Darrin Horn. Horn picked up right where Brannen left off, finishing 13-5 in the Horizon League despite stud senior Dantez Walton missing the majority of conference play due to injury.
Even with Walton back healthy, I don’t think this game will be close. The Norse are basically a knock-off version of Villanova. Both team’s live and die by the 3, with both ranking inside the top 30 nationally in 3 point rate. However, as I mentioned before, Villanova is one of the most efficient teams in the country shooting from out there, while the Norse are one of the worst, ranking an abysmal 310th in 3P%, shooting under 30% from out there.
While Northern Kentucky has been able to survive that dreadful shooting by ranking 16th in opp 3P%, the Wildcats are a different animal unlike any NK has faced this season, with 4 different players shooting above 35% from there on at least 6 attempts per game. Villanova will rain fire and brimstone from long range, and the Norse will not be able to match their output, leading to an early blowout.
Villanova 86, Northern Kentucky 52
Hope
The Villanova Wildcats could be the sneaky pick to win this whole tournament. Behind Saddiq Bey, who had a strong argument to win Big East Player of the Year, Jay Wright’s squad runs seven to eight players deep with five players averaging double-digit scoring. While the Wildcats may lack true interior size, in the form of a seven-footer, their length at every position still makes them a lot to handle for smaller teams like Northern Kentucky.
The Northern Kentucky Norse is a small, yet talented, team that relies on its perimeter defense and high volume shooting to win games. This strategy may work in the Horizon League, but against Villanova’s 6’7″ wins, it may be tough to find the space or affect drives to the basket. The Norse should start the game hot from three, but they will tail off as fatigue sets in.
Villanova 72, Northern Kentucky 58
Darlington
This Villanova team is not as good as they were in recent years. I mean, don’t get me wrong, they may not be National Championship caliber, but this is still a very talented basketball team. Villanova, led by Sophomore forward, Saddiq Bey (16.1 ppg), and Junior guard, Collin Gillespie (15.1 ppg), would look to exceed expectations and make a deep run in this tournament. First, they would have to handle a very fiery Northern Kentucky squad. Senior guard, Tyler Sharpe of the Norse, averages 15.1 ppg. He is a fantastic scoring guard, and on top of that, plays with an attitude that is hard to contend with.
He would want nothing more than to knock off a giant in the NCAA Tournament before graduating. Outside of Sharpe, The Norse have a lot of length that would give Villanova problems for a while. The game would be closer then most people think, but in the end, the talent and experience of Villanova would allow them to prevail.