NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
South Region (top-half)
(1) Kansas vs. (9) Rutgers
Biggest keys
Matthew Winick
Geo Baker’s scoring. Baker’s top 5 scoring games this season have all been Rutgers victories, meanwhile, his bottom 4 scoring games were all losses. He is arguably their most talented scorer, and beating a team as proficient on both ends as the Jayhawks will be tough without Baker’s scoring punch.
Kansas’ small ball rebounding. It seems fairly clear that Kansas’ best lineup has Udoka Azubuike as the sole big, and David McCormack coming off of the bench. With Rutgers loving to pound the glass, a combination of Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji will need to be a factor rebounding defensively.
Threes and Frees. Rutgers struggles both from deep and at the charity stripe, and Azubuike’s struggles at the line for Kansas are well documented. While the Jayhawks don’t struggle as much as a team, this is still a factor. If Rutgers can somehow outshoot the Jayhawks from deep and from the line, they may be able to hold their ground for the majority of the game.
Brian Rauf
The biggest key to this game is the play of Udoka Azubuike. When he’s on, Kansas is virtually unstoppable but when opponents are able to limit him or if he gets in foul trouble, they’re a much more beatable team. Rutgers has to slow him down while also getting offensive production from Joseph Young. You know what you’re going to get for the most part from Ron Harper Jr and Geo Baker, but Young can give them that third perimeter scorer Kansas has to worry about. The third biggest key is to see if the Scarlet Knights can apply any game pressure to Kansas. If the Jayhawks get out to a big early lead, it might be over before half – but the longer Rutgers hangs around, the more belief they will have and the better they will play.
Jason Kinander
Kansas three-point shooting: Isaiah Moss and Ochai Agbaji must be lights-out from deep in order for the Jayhawks to hold off Rutgers. Look for Devon Dotson to create open looks in the transition game, considering the effort and attention that will be given to Udoka Azubuike down low. If Kansas can hit the three, then they’ll blow out the Scarlett Knights.
Geo Baker’s game control. In certain big games, Geo Baker has been unable to produce at his normal high level. However, in the biggest game of his career, Baker must be the best player on the floor, hitting three-pointers at a high rate and contributing on both sides of the floor.
Udoka Azubuike against a smaller Rutgers team: Azubuike must have another signature game, putting up big scoring and rebounding numbers. He’ll certainly get a lot of attention, but if he can continue to hit shots at an efficient rate, the mismatch down low will be too much for Rutgers
Game predictions
David Mullen
The seedings do not tell the whole truth. Although eight spots away from each other, the gap between Kansas and Rutgers is more comparable to the Grand Canyon. Rutgers, although riding a high of a first-round win, must come back to reality and realize this will not have a similar result as their previous game. Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike will both have great first halves for the Kansas Jayhawks — enough to give the Jayhawks comfortable breathing room without ever having to look back.
Kansas 81, Rutgers 69
Donovan Darlington
Rutgers had a very impressive year. Unfortunately, after just getting by in Round One, they have a Second Round date with Kansas. This game would be exciting for a little bit because of the fact that Rutgers is happy to be in the NCAA Tournament and will relish the opportunity to go toe to toe with a juggernaut like Kansas. Due to that, I would say that this game would be close until about half time.
In the second half of this contest, I would expect Kansas to come out and find a rhythm on both offense and defense. In both the backcourt and the frontcourt, the mismatches favor Kansas. The advantages will definitely show in the second half of play if they do not show in the first half. The better guards for Rutgers, Sophomore, Ron Harper Jr., and Junior, Geo Baker, are great guards, but they are not quite the level of Devon Dotson. In the frontcourt, I expect Udoka Azubuike to deal all sorts of damage without being stopped much. Kansas wins big.
Kansas 82, Rutgers 60
Arden Cravalho
I don’t think the Rutgers will have much of a chance against the 1-2 punch of Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. The pair of AP Second Team All-Americans will cause a lot of problems on both sides of the floor for the Scarlet Knights. Simply put, the offense of Rutgers that averages 69.9 PPG (ranks 237th worst in the nation) won’t be able to stop the consistent Kansas offense.
Kansas 81, Rutgers 71
Kansas moves on with a 3-0 sweep
(4) Louisville vs. (5) Wisconsin
Biggest keys
Curtis Wilkerson
Louisville is 13-1 this season when Jordan Nwora scores 20 or more points. The Cardinals need him to have a big game, but it is not a given. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin, who ranks 13th in the NCAA in scoring defense, can contain him.
Nwora averages double the amount of PPG as anyone else on the Louisville roster. While he has proven capable of shouldering the load, he will likely need some help against a balanced Wisconsin squad. Steven Enoch and Dwayne Sutton will need to bring their A-game.
Louisville cleans up and the glass. Wisconsin does not. In a game that is likely to come down to the final few minutes, it will be key for the Badgers to compete on the boards, limiting second-chance opportunities for the Cardinals while creating some of their own. Micah Potter will be critical in this regard.
Game predictions
Michael Walton
Controlling the tempo will be the theme of this matchup. The Cardinals only average 3.4 possessions per game more than the Badgers but they have shown all year that they have the athleticism necessary to play a fast-paced game should it come to that. In order to defeat a red-hot Wisconsin team–with 8-straight wins to close the regular season–the Cardinals would need to push the pace with explosive guards David Johnson and “Fresh” Kimble, who have an advantage in terms of speed over Badgers’ guards.
Though I believe the guard play will determine this one, both team’s leading scorers are impressive upperclassmen bigs. Louisville’s Jordan Nwora can disappear if he doesn’t get going early but his ability to space the floor (40.2% from 3-point range this season) and solid rebounding numbers (7 rebounds per game) are going to make Badgers’ coach Greg Gard aware of his whereabouts at all times on the floor.
Wisconsin’s Nat Reuvers is a solid post-scorer, good shooter, and even better screen-setter. Because of his solid screens, Reuters is just as likely to pop for a 3-pointer as he is to roll to the rim. Wisconsin Reuvers and point guard D’Mitrik Trice (5.6 assists over his last five games) and an elite team defense backing them up, the Baders are truly no team that no one wants to play in the NCAA Tournament. That being said, David Johnson’s speed will give problems to Reuvers and Micah Potter in pick-and-roll actions, leading to one too many open shots for Nwora and Dwayne Sutton.
Louisville bigs Steven Enoch and Malik Williams aren’t elite shot blockers but they defend without fouling, which is necessary against a team that avoids turnovers and mistakes like Wisconsin (3rd in the nation in turnovers). With Reuvers not getting anything easy and Trice battling with Johnson and Kimble, Louisville will pull out the win with a strong 2nd half push.
Louisville 69, Wisconsin 57
David Ackert
Louisville could be a sleeping giant as a 4-seed. This team flirted with the top-10 all year and finished the regular season there in most rankings. But don’t sleep on Wisconsin in the game either! The Badgers are used to playing in March and this year more than survived a battle-tested Big Ten. Wisconsin ended the regular season on an eight-game winning streak and will look to ride that momentum into the second weekend of March Madness. F Nate Reuvers could lead that charge!
I expect them to do what they normally do and carry the team to a close game each getting 12 points in this one, but it won’t be enough in the end. F Jordan Nwora for Louisville is one of the best players in the country and starting to shine in the sports biggest month. He drops a game-high 22 points and leads Louisville to the Sweet 16!
Louisville 75, Wisconsin 71
Connor Hope
This may be one of the best matchups of the second round, between a team fueled by one of the countries top players and one of the more balanced teams in the country. Louisville, led by star wing Jordan Nwora, has been toward the top of the ACC all season and would probably be favored in this matchup. Wisconsin, however, has a balanced attack that cannot be slowed by taking out any individual player.
As this game plays out, I fully expect Wisconsin Head Coach Greg Gard to make a point of denying Nwora easy opportunities on the defensive end. With Nate Reuvers, Micah Potter and D’mitrik Trice being the next best players on the floor, and Brad Davison playing pesky defense, I fully expect the Badgers to pull out the victory.