NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions
Midwest Region (top-half)
(1) Baylor vs. (9) Providence
Biggest Keys
David Mullen
The Baylor Bears’ most important key to winning their matchup against Providence is their defense. Their defense?! Yes, their defense. The Baylor Bears have their best defense since 2014-15 a year in which they only gave up 60 points per game — same as 2019-20. The Bears stifling defense has held opponents to a 39.7% field goal percentage (31% from 3-pt range); good for a top 25 ranking in the nation.
The Bears’ biggest worry on the Providence Friars is senior guard Alpha Diallo. Diallo has been the workhorse for the Friars. Diallo averaged a team-leading 32.7 minutes per game and, although he has regressed from last year, he has still carried the Friars. Diallo’s points per game have decreased by almost two points per game compared to last year. Statistically, Diallo has had a much worse year than last. Despite that, he has pushed through the adversity to lead a less-talented led Ed Cooley team than in previous years.
Lastly, the Bears will have to rely on their two stars on the offensive end of the court; Jared Butler and MaCio Teague. Butler and Teague, collectively, average 29.9 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game, and five assists per game making them a highly effective guard duo for Scott Drew’s Bears. Teague transferred from UNC-Asheville and sat out last year due to transfer rules. Since joining the Bears, he has left his mark with a 35.5% success rate from three-point range. Similarly, Butler is hitting 38% of his three-point attempts. Having one effective three-point shooter puts massive amounts of pressure on opposing defenses but having two effective three-point shooters on an elite defensive team? Almost impossible to overcome without some luck.
Donovan Darlington
This is a game between a Baylor team that has been nothing short of dominant for the majority of the season, and a Providence team that held its own in a very deep Big East Conference. A key in this game will be whether or not Baylor Guard, Jared Butler (16.0 ppg), can get into a scoring rhythm against the solid Providence backcourt. Outside of Kansas, in the Big 12, Baylor has not been exposed to very many teams with a backcourt filled with playmakers like Providence. For another key to this game, we will remain in the backcourt but reverse the roles. Providence guards, Alpha Diallo, David Duke, and Luwane Pipkins, all average in the double digits in scoring, but will face one of the best defensive teams in the country in Baylor.
Baylor is 7th best in scoring defense, holding its opponents to 60.1 ppg. Providence’s backcourt has been capable of stretching its opponents all season and creating easy bucket opportunities, but Baylor’s defense is a whole new challenge. In a game featuring very talented backcourts, the third key to this matchup will be the battle between the reliable big men that each team possesses. Junior center, Nate Watson of Providence, would most likely be matched up with Senior forward, Freddie Gillespie of Baylor. The two average 9.0 and 9.6 ppg, respectively. Whoever wins this battle may provide his team with the upper hand.
Arden Cravalho
1. Providence has to make their shots. Don’t leave points off the board with missed easy looks and blown free throws if you’re the Friars. It’s hard to score on a Baylor team that allows opponents to only 60.1 PPG (7th best in the nation) so take advantage of all scoring situations.
2. Control the glass if you’re Baylor. Providence is a strong rebounding team at all positions so box out and crash the boards.
3. The Friars have to protect the lane and control the paint if they want a chance of knocking off Baylor. Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, and Freddie Gillespie (almost anyone on this team) can get hot offensively at any time so be solid on the defensive end of the floor.
Game Predictions
Holden Walter-Warner
Providence has proven again and again this season that they can beat anyone anywhere at any given time. And yet, going with the superior team here seems like the pick. Baylor plays a fundamentally sound game and is much less susceptible to the surges Providence had against Big East teams that appeared much more fallible throughout the season. Jared Butler should have a game that makes America recognize him more.
Baylor 70, Providence 61
Trevor Sinodhinos
The Friars’ most impressive stat is the fact that they bang the offensive boards and manage to collect almost 12 of them per game. Leading the way for Providence is 6-7 senior guard Alpha Diallo. It is never a good sign when your leading offensive rebounder. and rebounder as a whole is a guard, never mind the fact he averages 3 more than the second player on the list. Aside from Diallo also leading the team in scoring, he is followed by 2 other guards in David Duke and Luwane Pipkins. Providence has a lot of stock wrapped up in the guard position, an area that Baylor is not short on talent.
When Baylor counters with their trio of guards who lead their team in scoring in the form of Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and defensive star Davion Mitchell, it will be difficult for Providence to overcome this. Baylor’s defense is ranked 5th in the nation at 60.5 points allowed per game because their defense is that good. While Providence does enjoy a higher pace of play to the tune of 3 possessions per game, the fact that Baylor handled Villanova, albeit in November is just added proof that Baylor will walk away with a win and into the Sweet Sixteen.
Baylor 71, Providence 63
Max Hastings
If you like defense, you’re not gonna want to miss this matchup. Coach Scott Drew’s decision to go man-to-man full time has been a revelation for the Baylor Bears. While Drew’s 1-3-1 defense made Baylor a good defensive team, his new man-to-man defense has turned the Bears defense from good to elite. This season, Drew’s squad ranked inside the top 30 in FG% allowed, Blocks per Defensive Possession and Turnovers Created Per Game.
On the other side, Providence also relied on their defense to carry them to Ws. Also a traditional man-to-man defense, the Friars ranked 22nd in the nation in Steals per Defensive Possession and were also elite at defending the 3, leading the Big East in 3P% allowed.
This is very intriguing for a 1 vs 9 matchup. While Baylor was one of the best teams all season, they come into the tournament having dropped 3 of their last 5 games. Providence’s win streak now sits at 7 after a big win over 8 seeded Colorado, another very tough defensive team, and the Friars will be looking to take advantage of an elite team not playing its best basketball at the moment.
Although I predicted on Twitter that Baylor would win the national championship back in November, I think I have to go with the upset here. Not only does Baylor’s recent play worry me, but this is an extremely bad matchup for them given Providence’s 3-point defense and Baylor’s tendency to rely on their 3-point shooting to carry their offense. I think this game goes very similarly to Providence’s huge win at Villanova at the end of February, where the Friar’s held 3-point-happy Nova to just 16% shooting from behind the arc (5-30). Much like that Villanova game, this will be a rock fight for the ages, with Providence shocking the world and giving the Friar Faithful flashbacks of the great Austin Croshere-God Shammgod Cinderella team back in ‘97.
Providence 56, Baylor 52
Near upset but Baylor survives 2-1
(4) Kentucky vs. (5) BYU
Biggest Keys
Holden Walter-Warner
Key 1: Kentucky needs to limit Yoeli Childs. Since returning from his nine-game suspension, Childs has been unstoppable, averaging 22.2 points and 9.0 rebounds per game and making nearly 50 percent of his 3-point attempts. He’ll be the best player on the court for this game.
Key 2: Kentucky needs to activate Ashton Hagans. Hagans disappeared down the stretch of the season before taking a personal leave that essentially ended his regular season. Obviously, taking care of his personal business comes first, but having Hagans would be key for Kentucky, who could use the injection of speed.
Key 3: Take Hagans off the court and no Wildcat averages more than 3.2 assists per game. Take Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley off the court and no Wildcat averages even a single assist per game. The Wildcats need to play a more distribution-oriented game to get past BYU’s defense and get to the bucket.
Trevor Sinodhinos
The three keys that the game between (4) Kentucky and (5) BYU will come down to in order to determine a winner will be 3 point shooting, free-throw shooting, and points allowed in the first half.
BYU shoots 42% from beyond the arc and average 10 made three-pointers per game. Kentucky opponents average just under 31% and only convert 5 per game. BYU is not only going to have to have a great game from deep but will have to have the best performance against Kentucky this season.
There is no comparison at the free-throw line Kentucky hits 79% whereas BYU connects at a 68% clip from the charity stripe. BYU needs to have season-high success rate from the free-throw line, hope Kentucky is awful for the first time or BYU does not put them on the line. All difficult tasks.
And finally, the first half is going to be extremely important, because Kentucky will win the second half. Every close game BYU has had it is because the second half was close if they did not outright lose it.
Max Hastings
Who wins the Matchup between Jake Toolson and Ashton Hagans?
In one of the most intriguing matchups in the tournament, arguably the best 3-point shooter in the nation, Jake Toolson, will face off against one of the best perimeter defenders in the nation in Ashton Hagans. Hagans ranked amongst the top in the SEC in Steals Per Game and Defense Rating, while Toolson ranked 1st in the WCC and 2nd in the nation in 3-point %. Will Toolson make it rain from downtown, or will he be taking a 1st class flight to Hagans Island?
BYU’s Suspect Interior D
While the Cougars were one of the best offensive teams all season long, they were below average defensively, especially on the interior. They ranked 227th in the nation in 2-point FG%, allowing teams to shoot 44% from that range. That could spell trouble against Kentucky, as the Wildcats rank 51st in the nation in team FG%, shooting above 50% and getting most of their buckets inside with Calipari’s dribble-drive offense. The Cougars undersized forwards will have to step up big time and protect the paint against Kentucky’s slashing guards.
Kentucky’s Fouling Issue
The Wildcat’s physicality on defense led them to being one of the toughest defenses in the nation, but it also led to a lot of trips to the free-throw line for opposing teams. They ranked 187th in the nation in free-throw attempts allowed and gave up at least 20 FT attempts in each of their 6 losses, including an insane 44 attempts allowed in their loss to Auburn. Giving free shots to a team that shoots as well as BYU could spell disaster for the Wildcats.
Game predictions
Connor Gluck
Its offense vs. defense for this one, as the high-powered rain-making BYU Cougars face off against the disciplined and tough Kentucky Wildcats. The Cougars are third in the nation in field goal percentage and first in three-point shooting, while the Wildcats are 20th in opponent’s shooting percentage and top-60 in opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage. It will be a battle of wills and coaching to determine who will be victorious in this one. Look for the more experienced John Calipari to figure out a good way to slow down new coach Mark Pope’s three-point shooting squad.
One key for the Wildcats will be to exploit their superior size on the inside to get a few easy buckets and create space for their shooters. Big men Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery are both at least two inches taller than anyone on BYU who plays meaningful minutes. The Cougars will need to not give up too many offensive rebounds and second-chance points, as well as keep hot from deep on the offensive side, three points are more than two of course. Overall, look for the Wildcat’s superior talent and coaching experience to slow down the Cougars enough that they can pull out the win.
Kentucky 73, BYU 65
Jake Matteson
Do you know that .gif of the guy in sunglasses walking into a park with his folding chair and he snaps it open with a big smile on his face and sits down? That’s me for this game.
The Cougars roll into this one after a close shave against Texas Tech. The bread and butter of this team is their NBA prospect, Yoeli Childs. Childs is tried and true and casual fans are going to love watching him go to work here.
Mark Pope’s BYU squad is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country; shooting 50% from the field as a team, there are many ways they can make you pay. Jake Toolson and TJ Haws have a great touch from outside which opens up the court offensively for BYU. The Cougars can shoot the ball and are second in KenPom for Effective FG% and also protect it, averaging just 11 turnovers per game.
It’s hard to deny that this UK team has talent all over. The Wildcats lean heavily on Immanuel Quickley and Nick Richards along with Tyrese Maxey and Ashton Hagans. A potential Richards/Childs match-up is a fun one to think about as they force the other to reach deeper into their bag of tricks. UK is effective on both sides of the ball and can force you into taking some tough shots and can force you to make mistakes with the ball.
This is such a toss-up to me. And the thought of this game occurring gets me hyped up. Expect BYU to shoot the ball really well early on in the game and keep Kentucky on their toes. As the game progresses, somethings got to give: does BYU thrive or can UK make them crack?
Kentucky steals this one.
Kentucky 76, BYU 70
Joey Loose
While Kentucky possesses the talent advantage, BYU does enter the game as the nation’s best 3-point shooting team. In March, hot shooting efforts can propel any team on a magical run through the Tournament. However, we can’t discount the size and rebounding edge that the Wildcats would have in this game. Kentucky’s defense wasn’t the best in the country but they would pose a challenge to those streaky BYU shooters. Kentucky took care of business most of the year in the SEC and I think they’d handle the Cougars, though it would certainly come down to the wire.