NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Round of 32 predictions

East Region (bottom-half)

(6) West Virginia vs. (3) Michigan State

Biggest keys

Collin Helwig

Dictating the game’s ball movement:

Michigan State already comes into this one as the favorite, having solidified itself as the more complete team both offensively and defensively. With West Virginia’s lackluster three-point shooting, a scenario involving the Mountaineers upsetting Michigan State in a shootout remains highly unlikely. But if they dictate the game’s flow and shut down Michigan State’s exceptional ball movement (7th most APG in the NCAA), they may be able to turn this into a gritty, low scoring game and sneak away with a win. But on the other hand, if Michigan State keeps swinging the ball around the way they have all season, the Spartans will run away with this one.

Winning the battle on the glass:

These two squads ranked 25th and 22nd in RPG this season, as Michigan State’s 40.6 RPG slightly edged West Virginia’s 40.5 RPG. With both teams’ rebounding skills nearly mirroring each other, and with glass eating still a factor so influential on a game’s final score, whoever edges out the other on the boards will likely take this one.

Cassius Winston taking charge:

Averaging 18.6 PPG, Cassius Winston scores at a level far beyond anyone else on the floor. But with their astute defense, West Virginia will likely aim to shut down Winston, and they will need to in order to win this game. However, if Winston plays with an aggressive mindset and maintains a constant offensive attack, he’ll have his way, and so will the Spartans.

Jack Bennett

This very intriguing second-round matchup pits two inconsistent regular season teams against the other. For the Spartans, Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman must be the catalysts like they have been all season. If West Virginia is going to succeed, then big man Oscar Tshiebwe must have an impact on the inside and needs to have somewhat of an impact in guarding Tillman. Neither team is exceptional at shooting from deep though with both squads under 35% for the year. The winner of the Tillman vs Tshiebwe matchup might just secure the win for their team considering neither can depend on outside shooting to clinch the victory.

Tristan Freeman

West Virginia is defined through their big men, Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe who are some of the best defensive anchors in the country. They’re also the two leading scorers for the team, so how well they play will ultimately decide their chances of winning. Xavier Tillman of Michigan State will have his hands full but has to avoid getting into foul trouble, as the Spartans don’t have much size inside outside of him.

On the other hand, West Virginia will have to find a way to not only slow down All-American Cassius Winston but also get some production from their own perimeter. The offense for the Mountaineers has come to a halt in the past couple of months and a drought this time around could prove to be fatal for them.

Game Predictions

Jacob Zinkula

West Virginia may have escaped round one, but it’s still the team that lost six of its last nine entering the tournament. Michigan State, on the other hand, came in as one of the hottest teams in the country (won six straight).

Oscar Tshiebwe will give the Spartans some issues, but Xavier Tillman’s stellar interior defense should limit his production. Expect Cassius Winston to handle the Mountaineers’ pressure defense, and West Virginia’s outside shooting to continue letting it down. Bob Huggins’ squad will put up a good fight, but the Spartans are simply the better team.

Michigan State 70, West Virginia 63

Jake Verboven

Michigan State is coming off a big win over 14th seeded Hofstra and has now won 6 in a row including 4 wins over ranked opponents. Cassius Winston is on another level to end Big Ten play and into the first round of the tournament. His supporting cast is finally coming together too, with Rocket Watts and Aaron Henry putting up big numbers over the last few games.

West Virginia is coming off big wins over Baylor and Xavier. They will rely on the inside play of Tshiebwe and Culver like they have all season, but I think the experience and play of Xavier Tillman will make it tough for them under the rim. They will also be outmatched in the backcourt, for as good as McBride has been in the second half of this season he is a freshman going up against one the best in the business.

West Virginia’s defense may not be the “Press Virginia” of years past, but they still are causing a lot of problems for opponents… However, Cassius Winston always seems to move at his own pace. Expect big play after big play down the stretch from one of the best guards in college basketball. Spartans won’t let this be their star guard’s last game.

Mich St. 82, WV 71

Cody Larson

West Virginia would be rolling at this point considering their 1st round victory and previous win over Baylor. But they drew a bad draw in Michigan State and Mr. March, Tom Izzo. The Spartans have been playing like the hottest team in basketball at this point. Xavier Tillman will be the best big man on the floor and should stall West Virginia’s two best players in Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver on the offensive end.

On the other end of the rotation, MSU overwhelms with Cassius Winston and the surging presence of Rocket Watts and Aaron Henry. That trio is too much of a match for the young likes of Miles McBride, Sean McNeil, and Jordan McCabe. Winston drives the Spartans past WVU, as the star point guard gets one step closer to a title.

Michigan State 75, West Virginia 65

Michigan State gets the 3-0 sweep

(10) Richmond vs. (2) Florida State

Biggest Keys

Adam Childs

The biggest key in this game will be how can the Spiders combat the size of the Seminoles. Richmond is not the biggest team and FSU can control the game inside and that can be a game-changer. The Seminoles are also very quick and can get after you defensively. Do that Spiders have enough on offense to deal with the pressure. Finally, can Richmond get Blake Francis going in the game? If he can get his shot and lead the Spiders then they have no shot in this game.

Brian Rauf

Florida State has a huge size advantage over Richmond and they need to use it. The Spiders are the 301st tallest team in the country (the Seminoles are the tallest) and only have one player (Grant Golden) in the rotation over 6-7. Richmond will also have to take care of the ball, given that FSU’s calling card is their defense and ability to force turnovers (ninth nationally). And, if this game is close down the stretch, that is going to play right into Florida State’s hands. They’re 8-4 in games decided by five points or less this year, one of the best marks in the country.

Connor Hope

How well does Richmond deny Vassell?

With Nick Sherod the likely candidate in the Richmond starting rotation to be tasked with defending Devin Vassell, this will be a game of denial rather than on-ball defense. There is no doubt in my mind that once he has the ball in his hands Vassell will carve up the defense, so denying him the ball by cheating to the passing lanes and providing help when needed is important.

Which team can get to the opponent’s bench first?

Both Richmond and Florida State are deep teams. The Spiders regularly run with a 9-10 man rotation while the Seminoles can trot out 11 guys that head coach Leonard Hamilton is comfortable with playing. The key in this game will be which team can rely on their starters and top players for more minutes down the stretch.

Can Florida State’s defense disrupt Richmond’s offensive efficiency?

The Spiders have gotten this far on the tails of their incredible offensive efficiency. With excellent shooting numbers and a respectable assist-to-turnover ratio, the Spiders spread the ball around, take smart shots, and can score at all levels. Florida State has had an excellent defense all season but will need to take it up a notch if they aim to throw the Spiders’ offense out of whack.

Game Predictions

Jacob Salcido

What a fun match-up this is. At this point, Richmond has been playing great ball. Several players have been averaging double digits in scoring for the Spiders, led by junior guard Blake Francis. Richmond is a young team, but solid nonetheless. Florida State has had a fantastic season thus far, winning the ACC en route to a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite the explosive capability of this Richmond offense, this game is more of a defensive battle. The Seminoles play calm and unselfish ball, despite Richmond’s tough showing and late lead. Devin Vassell, Trent Forrest and M.J. Walker take over in the final minutes of the game, leading Florida State to a Sweet 16 berth.

Florida State 68, Richmond 63

Neil Adler

From a statistical perspective, No. 10 seed Richmond and second-seeded Florida State are quite similar in a lot of departments. And in many years, one could reasonably argue that the Seminoles’ league, the Atlantic Coast Conference, is vastly superior to the Spiders’ conference, the Atlantic 10.
However, during the 2019-20 campaign, the ACC proved excellent at the top, but undeniably mediocre in the middle and below. The Atlantic 10, meanwhile, enjoyed a strong performance from groups including Richmond and, of course, Dayton. As such, don’t count the Spiders out in their battle with Florida State, the ACC’s regular-season champion.

Where the Seminoles have an advantage in this round of 32 bout is in depth. Florida State’s roster boasts 11 guys who play nine or more minutes per meeting. That’s an important attribute to this encounter, should fatigue or foul trouble factor into the equation. Richmond’s bench isn’t as extensive, but it’s also not completely thin, with eight Spiders getting at least 11 minutes a game.
The Seminoles are a tad turnover-prone, averaging 13.2 miscues per affair. This is an area that Richmond has to feast on, in terms of securing easy buckets out in transition following careless mistakes by Florida State. The Spiders share the ball quite well, at 15.5 assists every 40 minutes, and efficiency on offense is vital for Richmond in facing a deep Seminoles squad.

Ultimately, the Spiders will hang tough with Florida State throughout the contest, but in the end, the Seminoles will do just enough to advance to the Sweet 16.

Florida State 74, Richmond 66

Logan Butts

The Spiders, who won nine of their last 10 regular-season contests, certainly won’t be a pushover against the 2-seed Florida State. Richmond’s starting five of Jacob Gilyard (the A10 Defensive Player of the Year), Blake Francis, Grant Golden, Nick Sherod, and Nathan Cayo can hang with just about anyone other than elite rebounding teams. Florida State is not quite elite in that regard, but the Seminoles do enough damage on the boards that Devin Vassell, Trent Forrest, and company should take care of business. Maybe this is the year Leonard Hamilton finally breaks through to the Final Four.

Florida State 75, Richmond 71

Florida State gets the 3-0 sweep

The Sweet 16 is set after a number of upsets:

1. Kansas vs 4. Louisville
6. Virginia vs 7. Houston
1. Gonzaga vs 4. Oregon
3. Seton Hall vs 2. San Diego State
1. Baylor vs. 4. Kentucky
6. Penn State vs 7. Illinois
1. Dayton vs. 12. Yale
3. Michigan State vs. 2. Florida State

One of these 16 programs will win Busting Brackets mock 2020 NCAA Tournament. Who do you think has what it takes to go all the way?