NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 predictions

1) Dayton Flyers vs 3) Michigan State Spartans

Tristan Freeman

Is it possible that a No. 1 seed is the underdog in the Elite 8? That’s what the bets will look like in this one, with few wanting to go against Cassius Winston and Tom Izzo. Just a year ago, they defeated Zion Williamson and the Duke Blue Devils to make the Final Four. And even though there seemed to be some trouble in the middle of this season, the Spartans always play at their best in March.

But the Flyers are a completely different animal. One of the highest-scoring offenses in the country, Dayton possesses one of the best players in the country in Obi Toppin, along with an impressive supporting cast. They look similar to Iowa, who Michigan State needed to make a huge comeback at home earlier in the season.

The two matchups that everyone will look at is Cassius Winston vs Jalen Crutcher at the point guard position, along with Obi Toppin vs Xavier Tillman inside. I think it’s fair to say that it’ll be a wash combined, meaning that the supporting cast will decide this one. At this stage in the game, I trust the Spartans just a bit more to prevail late in an instant classic.

Michigan State 79, Dayton 76

Joe Weidenburner

This one has me lamenting that we won’t actually get to see it. On one hand, we have the Dayton Flyers, seemingly a team of destiny in the year that would be, coming out of nowhere to take the world by storm with its Duke of Dunks, Obi Toppin, the recently-crowned Naismith National Player of the Year. On the other hand, a team of triumph, the Michigan State Spartans, who came into the season with the backbreaking expectations of being the preseason consensus number one team in the land, and who have overcome the personal tragedies of star Cassius Winston and early troubles in Big Ten play to end up back in the mix at the end of the season in the month that is synonymous with Izzo.

This one has two teams ranked in the top seven at KenPom in overall adjusted efficiency; Dayton, an elite offensive team with the nation’s best effective field goal percentage and two-point scoring percentage, and Michigan State, an excellent defensive team ranking top ten in both two-point and three-point defensive efficiency.

The nerves of the big stage get to Dayton in the first half with costly turnovers and uncharacteristically poor shooting percentages. Xavier Tillman provides stout defense and Rocket Watts is the surprise of the first half scoring eleven points as Sparty takes a seven-point lead into the break, 37-30. The second half proves to be a different story as Dayton’s offense kicks into high gear, benefiting from foul trouble for both Tillman and Winston. Jalen Crutcher and Toppin combine for 30 in the second half alone en route to pulling away from Michigan State and earning Dayton’s spot in the Final Four.

Dayton 78, Michigan State 68

Herbert Seward

There’s a lot to be said about the Dayton Flyers’ run this season. All of those things start with two words: Obi Toppin. The Naismith Player Of The Year has arguably been the most dominant force in college basketball this year, averaging 20.0 Pts, 7.5 Rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. His ability to score at all three levels in the halfcourt is head and shoulders above anybody else in College Basketball this season. His effectiveness in transition is just as sublime.

The scary thing about this team is that it isn’t just a one-man show. The Flyers are an extremely efficient offensive team, averaging 80 points a game and 22 assists per game as a team. Ibi Watson, Jalen Crutcher, and Ryan Mikesell are all dangerous options from behind the arc. That efficiency propelled the Flyers to a 29-2 overall record and a Number 1 Seed.

Michigan State seems to do this kind of thing every year around tourney time, don’t they? Point Guard extraordinaire Cassius Winston is putting his stamp on an already legendary career for Sparty with an equally legendary tournament run. Xavier Tillman’s toughness and defensive prowess have also been essential to this Michigan State run to the Elite 8. Rocket Watts, Aaron Henry, Kyle Ahrens and the rest of the Sparty supporting cast have found their stride at just the right time.

Dayton’s offensive mastery vs. Sparty’s tough-as-nails defensive philosophy is a dream Elite 8 match-up waiting to happen, and it lives up to that billing. Obi Toppin scores 35 points and snags 15 rebounds, solidifying himself as a sure-fire lottery pick. Jalen Crutcher scores 28 points for the game but is forced to the bench at 7:34 in the second half with foul fouls. He’s passive for the remainder of the game when he re-enters with 4 minutes left.

Dayton doesn’t have a defensive answer for Cassius Winston, who records a double-double with 32 points and 11 assists. Kyle Ahrens comes off the bench for 18 points, going 6 for 6 from behind the 3-point line. Rocket Watts scores 22 points, with 10 of those points coming in the last 3 minutes of the game. Michigan State pulls away in the final 2 minutes at the free-throw line and wins in an instant classic.

Michigan State 87, Dayton 81

We now have our Final Four matchups for our mock 2020 NCAA Tournament. It’ll be the Kansas Jayhawks vs Michigan State Spartans, along with the Kentucky Wildcats taking on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Four big programs left, who’ll take it all? Find out in our next piece coming soon!