NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Final 4 predictions
Jacob Zinkula – @1Perfectbracket
After making a Final Four run a year ago and entering the season #1 in the country, Michigan State has at times felt like the team of destiny. Despite some bumps in the road (lost 4/5 in February), the positive mojo is definitely back. Although Kansas has been the better team by almost all predictive metrics, the Spartans are likely the trendy pick.
The outcome will come down to two key matchups: Cassius Winston vs. Marcus Garrett and Xavier Tillman vs. Udoka Azubuike. Garrett, a great defender, should be able to slow Winston down in isolation, but Winston’s heavy use of pick-and-rolls should provide him some separation to make plays.
Tillman is a great defender in his own right, but at only 6’8, the 7’0 Azubuike might be too much to handle. On the other end of the floor, Azubuike shouldn’t have to guard much on the perimeter (Tillman only 13/50 from three on season), allowing him to man the paint defensively. The Winston-Tillman pick-and-roll will put some pressure on him, but without a true pick-and-pop threat, Azubuike should be just fine.
The Jayhawks have at times struggled with turnovers (remember the 28-turnover season opener vs. Duke?), but Michigan State is only 331st in defensive turnover percentage. One can’t forget about Devon Dotson either, who should feast on a Spartans defense that doesn’t have a clear answer for him (Aaron Henry, perhaps?). If Michigan State comes out victorious, it will likely be due to 3-point shooting. Three is greater than two, and the Spartans have more capable long-range threats (have five players shooting >=34.0% vs. only one for Kansas).
That said, some combination of Dotson, Garrett, Ochai Ogbaji, Isaiah Moss and Christian Braun should be able to hit just enough threes to complement the interior offense. The Jayhawks have been the better team all season, and that’s not about to change now. This team might not feel quite as destined for glory as Michigan State, but it has a pretty compelling story of its own (cough, FBI investigation).