NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Final 4 predictions
Trevor Sinodhinos – @sinodhinos
I never would have selected Michigan State to make it to the Final Four, and as February turned to March I had Kansas as my favorite to win the National Championship. The Jayhawks win the eye test every time, you watch them play and they are better than the other teams, simple as that. Basketball, however, is about match-ups, and I do not like this match-up for Kansas.
This being the National Semi-Finals, during a season where no AP No.1 team was immune from a defeat, this is going to be a close game, and a close game favors Michigan State. There are several key factors to winning a basketball game and the one I hold in the highest of regard is free-throw shooting.
While going 7-3 versus ranked opponents, Michigan State hit 75% of their free-throws, which placed them top 50 in the nation. The Jayhawks hit 67%, which put them better than 50 teams in the nation. The biggest culprit for the Jayhawks is their most effective player Udoka Azubuike who makes just 44%.
If his free-throws do not keep in on the bench late in this close game, the fact that he struggles offensively against talented centers will. When opposing centers were able to keep Azubuike uncomfortable by mixing up inside and outside scoring opportunities and making him work hard on defense, he was much less effective on offense. Xavier Tillman will be able to what Vernon Carey Jr. and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl did when Azubuike scored eight versus Duke and Villanova in losses.
Another important aspect is the number of seniors on the court come crunch time. This is often overlooked, because if you are better than your opponent, who cares how old you are? It is impossible to teach experience, and in times of high stress, human beings have the tendency to revert to what they know. Seniors have more to draw upon when making decisions and both teams have two seniors that play regularly but Michigan State has a senior at the most important position in Cassius Winston. The scoring totals are virtually equal between Winston and Dotson the two-point guards. Winston, however, averages one more assist and one more turnover per 40 minutes.
Coach Tom Izzo would probably go nine deep at most with the Spartans, whereas coach Bill Self could only feel comfortable going eight. Most importantly for coach Self will be sophomore David McCormick who often spells Azubuike for 14 minutes a game, asking much more would hurt the Jayhawks on both ends of the floor. The Jayhawks would have the advantage with the supporting starters as Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji average around 10 points, but both have over 2.0 in Defensive Win Share. Aaron Henry and Rocket Watts are closely comparable offensively, but neither of their Defensive Win Share is above1.5, for the Spartans.
Statistically, Michigan State does slightly better at making two-point and three-point field goals, they do a lot better at making free-throws., Michigan State also does a better job at limiting their opponents in those categories. Kansas wins the eye test, thanks in part to their supporting starters, particularly on defense. The X’s and O’s give the nod to Michigan State because of their senior point guard and because Azubuike is the most likely player to underperform. All that leads to Michigan State moving on to the National Championship game.