NCAA Basketball: Mock 2020 NCAA Tournament Final 4 predictions
Jason Burgess – @collegehoopsguy
With a trip to the national championship game on the line, No. 1 Gonzaga does battle with No. 4 seed Kentucky. This game will be a battle in a number of areas for Gonzaga and their nation-leading offense of 87 points per game. They’re led by three forwards Killian Tillie, Corey Kispert and Filip Petrusev combine for 45 of those points, have three others averaging 10 points, with a 7th, Drew Timme at 9.8. In Kentucky, the Bulldogs will be facing one of the best defensive teams they have faced all season, John Calipari’s Wildcats allow just 66 points per game and their opponents shoot under 40% from the field and just over 30% from distance.
The Wildcats are a more guard-oriented team led by the trio of Ashton Hagans, Tyrese Maxey and leading scorer Immanuel Quickley. But, unlike a lot of teams that run their offense through guards, Kentucky does almost all of their offensive work inside the three-point line, with just Quickley and Maxey attempting more than 65 on the season.
With the forward battle between Petrusev and Kentucky junior Nick Richards likely a wash, this game comes down to three key areas, Gonzaga’s success shooting the ball, whether or not Kentucky can keep the Bulldogs off the offensive glass, and which one of the two best teams in the country at getting to the free-throw line has more success once they get there.
Gonzaga is 2nd in the country in field goal percentage at 51.5% and their 38.6% from beyond the arc is 8th best in the country, and as I mentioned before, the Wildcats are equally as strong on the defensive end, ranking in the top-58 in both categories, 39.4%, and 30.7% respectively. Both teams are very strong rebounding teams, but Gonzaga is elite when it comes to grabbing missed shots.
Kentucky grabs nearly 27 defensive rebounds per game, but the problem for the Wildcats in this game is, not only does Gonzaga have a dominant frontcourt, but they rank even better nationally (70th) in offensive rebounding than Kentucky is at defensive rebounding (77th), so keeping the Bulldogs off the offensive glass will be a huge key.
Lastly, Both teams are some of the best in the sport at getting to the free-throw line, but Kentucky is in the upper echelon of the best, with a 2nd best percentage of 79.7% and only three other teams made more free throws than Kentucky this season. Despite attempting the 5th most free throws and making the 8th most, Gonzaga shot at just 68.8% and that is an area Kentucky will have to use to its advantage on both ends of the floor.
In the end, I think Kentucky will hang around for a bit but ultimately will have trouble neutralizing Gonzaga’s advantage on the glass and the Bulldogs will make enough three-pointers to play for the national title.