Pac-12 Basketball: Way-too-early power rankings for 2020-21 season

There is certainly a lot of hope surrounding the Cal program going into head coach Mark Fox’s second season, and for good reason. The Golden Bears posted a surprising 7-11 mark in Pac-12 play and big back a large portion of their rotation, headlined by star guard Matt Bradley.

That said, this group certainly overachieved and played above their heads from a talent perspective. They were actually pretty bad on both ends of the floor from an efficiency standpoint (195th offensively, 130th defensively) but succeeded in one key area – close games.

Cal was 3-0 in overtime games and were 7-3 in games decided by six points or less, both of which are marks indicative of a team much better than the Golden Bears were last year. It’s worth noting that teams rarely have back-to-back seasons in which more close games fall in their favor simply from a luck standpoint.

Unless you’re a team like Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UNC, or any program with elite talent, having such a positive record in close games is normally a result of just that – luck. The ball bounced Cal’s way more often than not in 2019-20, and it would be foolish to expect that to happen again. It doesn’t mean it won’t, but it’s unlikely.

It’s also worth noting that Cal was a terrible shooting team (295th in effective field goal percentage) who struggled to rebound and rarely forced their opponents into turnovers. Those are the kind of traits a team can carry from year to year, and the Golden Bears don’t have anything they can really hang their hat on.

There will be hope in the sense that Cal won’t be blown out all the time in 2020-21, but I wouldn’t expect them to match last season’s win total in Pac-12 play.