Virginia Basketball: Comparing dominant 3PT defense with the Toronto Raptors

Tough attempts from deep

When it comes to defensive 3PT% excellence coupled with a sky-high 3PT attempt rate, the NBA hasn’t (perhaps ever) seen anything quite like the 2019-20 Toronto Raptors. This has understandably led to speculation as to what on earth is going on up in Canada. In a recent article, ESPN’s Zach Lowe took a shot at some explanations.

"“Toronto has gotten a little lucky, but the Raptors are also dictating the terms of engagement…They sell out to make sure your best players do not get their favorite looks. That leaves shooters open, but Toronto is better than anyone at closing space. No one pauses to think. Each player knows what he should do, and has a deep, unspoken faith each teammate will shift accordingly…They are willing to live and die with role players shooting semi-contested 3s late in the shot clock.”"

No one is suggesting that Toronto is playing a pack-line defense, but some of the above analysis could have been cut and pasted from an article about Virginia – “better than anyone at closing space…Each player knows what he should do, and has a deep, unspoken faith each teammate will shift accordingly.” Both Virginia and Toronto have elite defensive chemistry and excel at closing out on opposing shooters. Below, notice the Virginia-like stunting/recovery, along with the use of a double team).

Lowe also references Toronto’s opponents shooting threes late in the shot clock, something that as discussed, the Cavaliers have forced opponents to do with lengthy possessions. The evidence backs this up: no team has allowed more 3PT attempts with 7-4 seconds on the shot clock than Toronto, and only two have allowed more with four seconds or less. The data also suggests that unsurprisingly, teams tend to shoot worse from three as the shot clock winds down, so Toronto’s 3PT defense surely benefits from this.

Toronto’s defensive 3PT attempt rate is fairly high across the shot clock spectrum, but the team’s ability to limit 3-pointers to some degree in the 18-15 and 22-18 ranges is meaningful nevertheless.

Lowe also seems confident that Toronto is strategically contesting and avoiding particular shooters on a consistent basis. As discussed with Virginia, this is something that is quite possible (some evidence of Toronto doing it here). As he also alludes to, however, Toronto’s 3PT defense has definitely gotten “a little lucky.” Especially, given the sample size of only one season, these “luck questions” are especially valid.

There’s no crystal clear explanation for the Raptors’ stingy 3PT% defense this season, but some additional NBA.com data can help shine a bit more light on potential answers.