Mountain West Basketball: Preseason power rankings for 2020-21 season

Projected Starters:

Guards – Brock Miller-JR, Alphonso Anderson- SR, Justin Bean-JR

Forwards – Neemias Queta-JR and Kuba Karwowski-SR

Bench – Szymon Zapala-FR, Rollie Worster-FR, Sean Bairstow-SO, Marco Anthony-JR*, Trevin Dorius- SO

The Mountain West Conference lost a lot of its honor roll from a season ago, and many of the teams are relying heavily on transfer solutions this season, however, there is continuity in Logan, Utah with 6 guys back that started at least three games in 2019-20.

Unfortunately, that continuity doesn’t include Sam Merrill(19.7 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 3.9 Ast), the man that delivered the Aggies two straight MWC tournament titles for the first time in school history. It’s an absolutely brutal loss, making the return of three other full-time starters a little less fun, but the good news remains as Craig Smith has some building blocks in place as he embarks on life without Merrill.

Block number one is Neemias Queta (13.0 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 1.9 Ast). The second-team All-Mountain West performer actually took a bit of a step back as a sophomore as he dealt with injuries that limited him to 22 games. Queta is one of the best shot blockers in the country (1.7 per game) and will continue to be the defensive focal point for Smith’s 19th ranked defensive team in college basketball.

While Queta is one of the top centers in the MWC, he won’t be able to shoulder much more as a scorer in regards to replacing Merrill’s production. That will fall on Justin Bean (11.9 Pts, 10.5 Reb, 2.1 Ast).

If the award existed, Bean would have been an under the radar candidate for most improved player in America a season ago as he increased his points and rebounds by seven a game in 2019-20 and out of nowhere made 3rd Team all-MWC.

If Bean can make a similar jump in his junior season, the Aggies will have a chance to make a run at a third straight NCAA tournament appearance if you count the auto-bid they received last year before the shutdown.

The building blocks look like they are there for continued success in Logan. However, they’ve got a two-fold problem. Number one they don’t have a point guard. The transfer of Abel Porter to Ohio State was a serious blow as he and Merrill were the team’s two primary distributors and offensive initiators.

This season they will probably have to rely on Brock Miller (8.4 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast) to fill that void. Miller is good, but there is no sample size that creates any belief that he will be effective as a point guard.

The second issue is they lose 60% of their 3-point shooting from 2019-20. Miller will be the best returning perimeter shooter, but he only shot it at a 30% clip as a sophomore, another area of his game he’s going to have to improve to make up for the loss of Merrill and Porter. No returning players made more than 21 3-point shots last season.

The other option at the point and as a shooter will be freshman Rollie Worster, a two-time Gatorade Player of the Year out of Montana.

While we are talking freshmen… What could help make up for some of the offensive punch that Craig Smith lost is the arrival of the potential conference freshman of the year, Szymon Zapala. The Polish star is a top-140 recruit with a 6’11 frame and uncanny touch around the rim. If he and Queta can mesh quickly there will be an opportunity for this to become an inside-out team which might be necessary given the lack of experience Utah State has on the perimeter.

Smith has created an incredibly consistent program at Utah State. They hang their hat on defense and that always translates, making this a team that will without question be in the top half of the Mountain West standings. However, you can’t underestimate the impact of losing a guy like Sam Merrill. Where will the Aggies go in crunch time?

Who is going to get the high quality forwards like Bean and Queta the basketball? Is there a true outside shot threat on this team? Those are really important questions, and it’s hard to find the answers. Still, this is a team that will finish between 3-6 in the MWC – a testament to what Smith has built in Logan, Utah.