NBA Draft 2020: Top 3 options for Portland Trail Blazers with the No. 16 pick

Possible NBA Draft target for Portland Trail Blazers — Josh Green

Wing | Arizona | 6’6 | 209 lbs | 19 years old

Wing defense in the modern era of the NBA — one full of perimeter marksman, jumbo-wing initiators, and stars who gets theirs in a variety of ways — is quite valuable, a self-explanatory necessity for any team looking to win games and compete for playoff victories. A team can never roster enough competent defenders, given the potential impact that 6’6 to 6’10 humans with gargantuan wingspans and proactive instincts can have on a possession-by-possession basis.

If a team lacks a cast of competent wing defenders, then that team probably isn’t going to win many games, at least in the postseason. And if a team lacks a cast of competent wing defenders and gives a significant chunk of playing time to a pair of 6’3 defensive sieves and a plodding 7-footer, well, that team definitely isn’t going to win many games in the postseason.

This is where the intrigue in Arizona wing Josh Green — who averaged 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.5 steals on .424/.361/.780 shooting as a freshman — begins and ends.

The 6’6 Aussie wing is, in every sense of the word, a defender. Green possesses a combination of functional strength, hip fluidity, light feet, strong hands (2.8 STL%), and superb instincts that makes him an imposing defender both on and away from the ball, whether he’s smothering ball-handlers at the point of attack, ripping the ball away from drivers on digs/stunts from the nail, or giving shooters a hellish time while chasing them off screens.

He’s not the biggest player which limits his defensive utility to guards and smaller 3s, but there’s still an apparent value in that, especially for a Blazers team that can’t afford to put Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum on an opposing team’s point guard without getting severely burned. He may not be a stopper, but he’d be a snug fit in Portland’s defensive system that funnels ball-handlers to the middle of the floor and toward the team’s rim protectors, so the defensive fit is clear-cut.

Green is very, very good at one side of the ball. Things get rather dicey on the other side, however, potentially damningly so.

Green is a smart connective passer and is good for one flashy touch pass per game, making him a good fit next to established primaries; having someone who reliably makes the simple extra pass is a luxury, and Green figures to be a useful downhill passer in some of Portland’s pinwheel sets on offense.

The jumpshot is, let’s say, funky, with visible elbow flair, skewed footwork, and significant valgus collapse, but there are some indicators in his favor. His touch on runners is pure (39.1% FG, 66th percentile), he’s a good free throw shooter (78.0% FT), and he converted on 40.6% of his catch-and-shoot three-pointers (85th percentile) as a freshman, so there’s hope that he can be an OK spot shooter in the NBA.

His lack of success on two-point jumpers (30/108, 27.8% FG) and guarded catch-and-shoot looks (21.7% FG, 17th percentile) isn’t inspiring though. However, the jump-shooting is the least of his concerns in terms of his halfcourt scoring.

Green is, at this juncture, a really awful finisher, a confluence of poor flexibility, and a bizarre aversion to using his left hand. He’s liable to attempt awkward two-handed layups and wild contortionist finishes in lieu of lefty layups, even if pulling such acrobatics ultimately makes for a harder shot.

Green is quite the useful run-out option in transition due to his open-court speed and vertical athleticism, but in the halfcourt it’s a different story: he only converted on 37.5% of his shots at the rim in the halfcourt, ranking in the eighth percentile. For a player who will exclusively serve in a spot-up scoring role in the NBA, that is bad. Very, very bad.

Overcoming those mental hurdles won’t be easy, but it’s necessary if Green is to be viable on offense in the NBA. It’s not out of the question that he reaches a point where he’s a league-average finisher — the athleticism and touch are there, which counts for something — but his poor scoring in the halfcourt is what has Green projected as a mid to late first-round prospect instead of a bona fide lottery talent.

Considering the team’s offensive talent and pressing need for defensive competency, Josh Green is nonetheless one of the better targets for the Portland Trail Blazers.