Big Ten Basketball: Early takeaways after first week of 2020-21 season

Inferring the consequences of Illinois’ free-throw percentage

Any individual who has been through high school is well versed in the practice of “rounding up”.  If we are to apply the time-honored tradition to the free-throw percentages of past NCAA Division I Champions, we have to go back to the 2006-07 season to find a champion who shot under 70 percent from the charity stripe.

That team was the Florida Gators who connected on 69 percent from the line, the other team who benefitted from the aforementioned rounding up was the 2014-15 Duke Blue Devils who shot 69.9 percent.

The No. 5 ranked Illinois Fighting Illini currently sits at 69.4 percent prior to their 62 percent performance in their loss to Baylor. The only game that they won by fewer than 25 points was the 77-75 victory over Ohio where the Fighting Illini missed a total of nine free-throws for 62 percent for the game.

The game was ultimately won at the foul-line, but fortunately for Head Coach Brad Underwood, it was senior guard Ayo Dosunmu who was on the line to make two shots while down by one point with two seconds left.

The greatest predictor of future success is past results and entering the game versus Baylor, Illinois’ 7-foot sophomore center Kofi Cockburn was shooting under 69 percent from the free-throw line. Cockburn is also the only player to average over six attempts per game.

When the player who attempts the most free-throws on your team shoots 68 percent and is still more successful than two other starters, it becomes easy to infer Illinois will be losing close games this season in the competitive Big Ten.