NCAA Basketball Roundtable: ACC/Big Ten Challenge, early surprises of 2020-21

5. Game Predictions for the top games of the week

Illinois vs Duke

Burgess

I think the Illini win a close one here 78-72 and the main reason for me is Illinois’ ability to knock down the three-point shot this season. Ayo Dosunmu and company have knocked down 45% of their attempts, while their opponents, the Blue Devils have yet to crack 30% in that category. I also think Illinois will be able to turn Duke over leading to some easy buckets and if Duke doesn’t crash the defensive glass, the Illini could also get a good number of second-chance opportunities.

Prediction: Illinois

Zacker

Illinois over Duke, 79-70.  The shootout between Ayo Dosunmu and Matthew Hurt could be absurd, but the Illini just has so many more proven weapons than Duke, who have suffered from inconsistent scoring from an extremely talented freshmen class.  Baylor has given the blueprint on how to shut down Kofi Cockburn – but I just do not think Duke has enough defensive manpower to also keep Adam Miller and Trent Frazier from scoring.

Prediction: Illinois

Tineo

Neither team came out with wins in their last games against Baylor and Michigan State respectively. Illinois played an overall better game, going toe to toe with Baylor back and forth for about 30 minutes of action. Duke doesn’t have the defensive intensity that Baylor has as Dosunmu gets back on track and Illinois wins.

Prediction: Illinois

Thedinga

Duke, 74-68. I think Illinois is the real deal this year, but Duke at home is tough—regardless of whether fans are permitted. The way the Blue Devils handle Cockburn will be the biggest story I’ll be watching. Had this game been at Illinois, flip the score around.

Prediction: Duke

Zinkula

Illinois 74 – Duke 72:  The Blue Devils will likely be slight favorites at home, but the Illini should bounce back after their loss to Baylor. Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili will make Jalen Johnson work for every bucket, and Ayo Dosunmu should return to form after facing an elite Bears perimeter defense. Without a packed Cameron Indoor Stadium, Illinois should be able to pick up the road victory.

Prediction: Illinois

UNC vs Iowa

Burgess

The matchup between Iowa and UNC will almost certainly be a track meet, both teams can score the ball but in the end, I think Iowa scores a little bit more and come away with an 88-81 win. North Carolina is 3-1 but when they have struggled in games it has, at least in part been because they have gone away from the strength of their team, their frontcourt.

Iowa has the favorite (at least for me) for National Player of the Year, Luka Garza who has barely contributed only going for 30 or more points in the first half in two of the team’s three games and averaging nearly 35 per game with 9.7 rebounds. I suspect the Tar Heels will attempt to limit Garza as much as possible so I think Joe Wieskamp and Patrick McCaffery could play a big role in this one.

Prediction: Iowa

Zacker

Iowa over UNC, 90-85.  UNC will be the first real defensive test for Iowa, having held teams to 60.8 points (52nd-best) in their first four games – but the Hawkeyes are averaging 99.7 points per game, and I think their offense overpowers UNC’s defense.  This game could come down to rebounds and assists.  UNC leads the country in offensive rebounds (17.8) while Iowa is fifth in assists (24.0).  Something has to give.

Prediction: Iowa

Tineo

Garza has been the most impressive player over the past week and some change, with 34 points and almost 10 rebounds per game. North Carolina will be his first test of the season. Freshman Garrison Brooks will have the tall task of defending Garza. Although he does a solid job, Garza does enough down low and three-point shooting from Joe Wiskamp will be enough to secure a Hawkeye win.

Prediction: Iowa

Thedinga

Iowa, 77-71. The man, the myth, the legend: Luka Garza is a man on a mission this year. He produces a lot of points and rebounds, which (from what I’ve been told) helps you win basketball games. UNC has come out of the gate slow and soft in each of their last three games. That will have to change if they want a piece of this one.

Prediction: Iowa

Zinkula

Iowa 79 – North Carolina 74: North Carolina has plenty of big men to throw at Luka Garza, but the preseason All-American (averaging 34.0 points) is so good it won’t matter. If he does have any issues on the interior, Garza’s always capable of operating from the perimeter as well. The Tar Heels should have some success on the offensive glass, but Iowa’s experience and home-court advantage should give it the edge.

Prediction: Iowa

Virginia vs Michigan State

Burgess

After a season-opening win that saw Virginia score 89 points people thought if the Cavaliers have an offense to go with that elite defense, they are going to be tough to beat. The next game that offense came back to earth, only putting up 60 in a loss to San Francisco. They then bounced back with wins over St. Francis PA and Kent State but now face a Michigan State team riding high after a win at Duke in the Champions Classic and dispatching a pesky Detroit team to move to 4-0.

The now 5-0 Spartans are more balanced than Virginia to this point with six players averaging six points or more, compared to just four for Virginia and I think it is that balance that will eventually lead the Spartans to a 74-69 win.

Prediction: Michigan State

Zacker

Michigan State over Virginia, 66-63.  Virginia will make this game slow, no matter what – they are last in college basketball in adjusted tempo, getting 63.0 possessions per 40 minutes and running nearly 20 seconds off the shot-clock.

Michigan State, meanwhile, wants to go – they are 83rd in tempo (73.1) and 45th in average possession length (15.4).  UVA’s frontcourt has been carrying the load, and they desperately need the backcourt to contribute – both areas that Michigan State excels in.

Prediction: Michigan State

Tineo

Michigan State is off to a start that has been led by sophomore duo Rocket Watts and Marquette transfer Joey Hauser. Michigan State has won on the perimeter with great defense (25 percent) and offense from beyond the arc (34 percent). Virginia has not defended the three well and been poor at controlling the basketball (nine turnovers a game, 289th in CBB). Michigan State continues the red hot start and improves to 5-0.

Prediction: Michigan State

Thedinga

Virginia, 67-62. Ah, yes, the battle of the Hauser brothers. From my experience, the older brother tends to win—in which case, I’ll take Sam and the Cavaliers. Expect Tony Bennett’s squad to get back to form and hold Michigan State’s scoring attack at bay. It’s Jay Huff’s last go-around at UVA, I anticipate the veteran forward to make a huge impact in games like this.

Prediction: Virginia

Zinkula

Michigan State 65 – Virginia 63: The Cavaliers have really struggled to start the season, while the Spartans (5-0) have an impressive road victory at Duke. It seems like Michigan State should win this game by 7-10 points — even on the road — but one has to imagine Tony Bennett and Virginia will conjure up a strong performance. I expect this game to be a step in the right direction for the Cavaliers, but they’ll come up just short.

Prediction: Michigan State

San Deigo State vs Arizona State

Burgess

San Diego State is the favorite in the Mountain West and have gotten off to a 4-0 start including wins over UCLA and a good Pepperdine team. The Aztecs are led by Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel who are both averaging over 12 points per game, but their true calling card has been the defense, no opponent has cracked more than 60 points on the season.

This game with Arizona State will be the toughest of the year, the 3-1 Sun Devils are led by freshman star Josh Christopher and his 17.5 points and fellow freshman Marcus Bagley leads the team in rebounding with 5.8. Bobby Hurley’s team is averaging over 84 points per game. Neither team is great a rebounding, so this will come down to who can knock down shots, so I’ll take Christopher, Remy Martin, and the Sun Devils 78-71.

Prediction: Arizona State

Zacker

San Diego State over Arizona State, 78-69. Never count out Brian Dutcher and his crew, who have claimed hard-fought wins over UCLA, UC Irvine, and Pepperdine.  They dominate on the boards, an area that the Sun Devils are sub-200 in nationally.  Arizona State will desperately need to take care of the ball – the Aztecs are among the nation’s best in forcing turnovers, forcing one in 27.8% of opponents’ possessions – the 11th best mark in Div. I.

Prediction: San Diego State

Tineo

Bobby Hurley has been everything as advertised through the first few games of the season. Josh Christopher and Remy Martin have averaged almost 35 points per game and been one of the best defensive teams in college basketball. San Diego State scores with a lot of players as eight players average over seven points per game. This is a truly underrated game and one the Aztecs could very well win. However, the Sun Devil’s guard play will be enough to pull out a win.

Prediction: Arizona State

Thedinga

Arizona State, 83-72. I like Arizona State to run away with this one a bit. The Aztecs haven’t seen an offense with the number of weapons as Arizona State. The Trojans will be an offensive juggernaut this year, and they’ll show it in this one. Brian Dutcher has things cooking at SDSU, but their first loss has to come somewhere.

Prediction: Arizona State

Zinkula

Arizona State 75- San Diego State 73: Given that the Aztecs return some key pieces from a squad that would have earned a 1-seed last season, I think they might be a bit underrated — although the team’s narrow victory over a pesky Pepperdine team on Sunday has me questioning this assessment.

Regardless, the Remy Martin-led Sun Devils should have enough to secure a victory at home. Senior guard Alonzo Verge is expected to return after missing the last two games. Assuming he plays, Arizona State wins.

Prediction: Arizona State

Kansas vs Creighton

Burgess

At 3-0 the Creighton Bluejays haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents this season, but don’t be fooled, this is a very good football team. Despite losing two key depth pieces to injury before the season they are averaging over 85 points per game.

This is a much more balanced and deeper team than last year with six players averaging in double figures eight averaging at least 13 minutes. Speaking of last season, I’m not sure there is a team that has been impacted more by losses from last season than Kansas.

A couple of things are happening for Kansas so far this season, the talent level isn’t quite the same and they are still trying to find their way in the post-Azubuike era. Freshman forward Jalen Johnson has been great, 15 points and 8.8 rebounds but fellow newcomer Tyon Grant-Foster has struggled.

I thought the win over Kentucky might get them going but then they struggled to beat a North Dakota State team that led most of the game. I think Creighton’s continuity in this one will be the difference, they don’t mind giving up points because they will just keep coming at you, I think Creighton wins this one 81-76.

Prediction: Creighton

Zacker

Creighton over Kansas, 80-67.  The Bluejays have a lot to prove after losing some key pieces over the offseason, and this will be their first legitimate test.  They are brilliant offensively, ranking second in 2P% (66.3) and sixth in FT% (83.3%), and they value the basketball, ranking third in TO% (10.8%).  They should come out and dominate against a Kansas team that struggled to score on Kentucky and North Dakota State – and a lot depends on the health of Marcus Garrett.

Prediction: Creighton

Tineo

Similar to San Diego State, Creighton has guys that score in bunches with five players in double figures. There is no clear identity with Kansas and they lack scoring on the inside. They nearly fell to North Dakota State and Creighton will pull off the upset to give the Jayhawks their second loss on the season.

Prediction: Creighton

Thedinga

Creighton, 82-78. Kansas is much more battle-tested early in the season, but Creighton is ready to take the next step. Expect Mitch Ballock to be on his game for the Jays against his home-state school. If Creighton can produce the three-point barrage they often show, there won’t be a whole lot Kansas can do. Expect this one to go down to the wire in Allen Fieldhouse.

Prediction: Creighton

Zinkula

Kansas 75 – Creighton 70: After a lackluster performance against North Dakota St., the Jayhawks should come out with a stronger home effort against the Blue Jays. Marcus Garrett might be the best on-ball defender in the country and should be able to make life difficult for Marcus Zegarowski. Creighton’s 3-point shooting will keep it close, but Kansas should be able to hang on.

Prediction: Kansas