Belmont vs. Murray State: 3 key storylines for first 2020-21 duel

2. Both squads rank among the best in 2PT%, but are average from beyond the arc – meaning something has to give

The Bruins and the Racers both maintain two of the best shooting averages from inside the arc, and both – if the last slide was any indication – are largely due to their stellar post play.  However, in contrast, they both are lackluster – albeit, not awful – from beyond the arc.

Belmont ranks 18th in 2P%, knocking down 58.3% of their shots from inside.  Of the 10 Bruins who have played 75 or more minutes thus far this season, eight of them are shooting over 50% – and three average better than 65%.  The Bruins do not rely much on inside play, admittedly – just 49.5% of their point distribution has come from two-pointers, the 194th-highest mark in Div. I – but they have the options to pull it off.

On the other end, the Racers are even better inside, shooting a 14th-best 59.6% on two-pointers.  Of Murray State’s eight players who have seen 100 or more minutes this year – and, subsequently, average 17 minutes or more per game – seven of them are shooting better than 50% from inside, and four maintain an average better than 65%.

Inside play has been instrumental to Murray State’s success so far, especially compared to Belmont’s numbers – at least 60.6% of Murray State’s point distribution comes on two-pointers, the 15th-highest mark in college basketball.  Their two wins over Div. I schools – Illinois State and Austin Peay – saw the Racers go 46-74 on two-pointers, a 62.2% mark.

The Racers need the two-ball in order to be successful, considering they are not stellar on long-range bombs.  They shoot 32.0% from beyond the arc, 198th in Div. I – and just 25.8% of their offense comes on three-pointers, which ranks 249th in the country.  They have needed long-range shots in order to win, however – they shot a combined 17-41 (41.7%) in those two aforementioned wins.  In their three losses, the Racers have gone 14-56 – or 25%.

The Bruins, meanwhile, have thrived a little more from beyond the arc, draining 33.8% of their long-range shots – the 145th-best mark, and just slightly above the Div. I average this season.  While 49.5% of their offense comes from inside, at least 31.0% comes on three-pointers – it is no coincidence that their worst shooting game thus far came against Samford, their only loss of the year – where they shot 24.4% (10-41).

Murray State does not feature a player who takes a lot of three’s or is considered a designated three-point shooter – the closest is Tevin Brown, who has gone 11-34.  Belmont, however, has their leading scorer Luke Smith as their three-point specialist.  The 6-0 guard ranks 111th nationally in three-point shooting, knocking down 47.5% of his shots (29-61).

These teams will score substantially inside, courtesy of their reliance on frontcourt play – but the three-ball could be the key to whoever wins this showdown.  Murray State’s performance from beyond the arc in last season’s OVC title game played a huge part in how they hung around with – and nearly defeated – the Bruins – they went 6-17 (35.3%), outdoing Belmont’s 5-21 (23.8%) clip.

In addition, the Racers return the three players responsible for those buckets – while the Bruins return none of their three 3PT-shooters from that night.