Virginia Basketball: 3 takeaways from close win at Notre Dame
2. Virginia’s struggles against Notre Dame are too significant to ignore – but there were some positives that insinuate that they are heading in the right direction
The fact that Virginia has not yet dropped out of the AP’s top 25 speaks volumes to the confidence given to Tony Bennett’s coaching and style – but, as it currently stands, this is not a team worthy of a top 25 ranking – yet.
The Cavaliers entered the season ranked fourth nationally, dropping to 15th after their loss to San Francisco – and fluctuated between 15-18 spots before falling to 23rd after their blowout loss to Gonzaga. Their win tonight at Notre Dame should still be enough to keep the Cavaliers in the top 25, but UVA could fall out with a loss on Saturday to fellow-nationally ranked in-state rival Virginia Tech.
But this was a Virginia squad picked to win the ACC – and they have not yet looked the part of a team capable of winning their conference or being considered one of the 25-best teams in the country. Expectations were understandably high – they returned 60.3% of their offensive output from last year’s 23-7 squad that finished second in the ACC – and they added Trey Murphy and Sam Hauser through transfer, and brought in two four-star recruits.
Except that is not at all how this season has played out yet, and the tilt against Notre Dame exposed some of those continuing issues. After averaging 14.9 points his junior season at Marquette, Hauser has struggled to find his role as the premier three-point shooter for UVA.
His 2P% shooting clip has drastically increased (53.8% to 62.5%) but his 3PT (40.2% to 37.0%) and FT (92.4% to 87.5%) numbers have dropped, as well as his scoring average (14.9 to 12.8). Hauser struggled a bit from the floor against UND (5-13 FG, 3-8 3PT) – but did finish with a 13-point, 10-rebound double-double.
In addition to Clark and Hauser, the only other consistent offensive weapon the Cavaliers have had is Jay Huff – and having him out at any time is deadly to Virginia’s offense. His 13 points in the first half were what gave Virginia their halftime lead, and Notre Dame quickly got him in foul trouble in the second half – which would have been detrimental to UVA had Clark not come alive in the final stanza.
This is still a Virginia team defending at an elite level – they rank 54th in 2P% defense (44.9%), play the slowest tempo in all of college basketball, allow teams to haul down an offensive rebound on just 22.6% of opposing teams’ possessions (41st-best), and play the tenth-best defense per adjusted efficiency. In addition, they rank in the top 100 offensively in 3P% and 2P% – but the most jarring difference from this year’s team to last year is their 3P% defense.
Last season, the Cavaliers held teams to just 29.3% from beyond the arc – the 16th-best mark in Div. I. This season, however, they are allowing teams to knock down 34.4% of their shots from long range – 212st in college basketball.
They allowed Gonzaga to knock down ten threes in the 98-75 blowout the other night. However, in now the best win of the season for Virginia, they kept the Fighting Irish – the 26th-best 3PT-shooting team in the nation – 14.3% below their average (25.0% to UND’s 39.3% clip).
If the Cavaliers can replicate that type of defensive performance against other teams moving forward, they will hang around with most ACC teams – but where the offense comes from, particularly on a consistent basis, is the biggest red flag, and it is something that has plagued them since their season-opening 89-point showcase against Towson.
Until then, this is not a top-25 caliber team – but if they can find their offensive stroke moving forward, especially against Virginia Tech, then they should remain among the nation’s best.