Gonzaga vs. San Francisco: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

 The top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs will tip-off their WCC season with a Saturday night showdown against San Francisco.

TV schedule: Saturday, January 2, 8:00 pm ET. ESPN2

Arena: McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Washington

In the nightcap of a busy Saturday in college basketball, the San Francisco Dons will face their toughest opponent yet, traveling to Spokane to take on the top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in the 86th all-time meeting between the two West Coast Conference rivals.

Gonzaga (9-0) entered the season ranked first nationally – and has been even better than anticipated.  Romping through the non-conference schedule undefeated for just the second time in program history, the Zags have strung together the best resume in college basketball, claiming wins over four nationally-ranked squads in Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia – as well as over a scrappy Auburn team.

The Bulldogs have been a terror on offense, pouring in a national-best 96.2 points per game behind 1.10 points per possession.  The Zags play one of the fastest styles in the country, ranking fourth in adjusted tempo and third in average possession length, taking 14 seconds off the shot-clock before taking a shot.  They are above average in 3P% (34.6%, 126th) but are even deadlier from inside the arc, ranking third in 2P% at 65.8%.

The three-man tandem of Corey Kispert (21.1 ppg), Drew Timme (19.3), and Jalen Suggs (15.1) has been, arguably, the best trio in college basketball thus far – and the supporting cast of Joel Ayayi (11.6 ppg and 7.8 rpg) and Andrew Nembhard (9.3 ppg) have succeeded in fleshing out the deadliest group in Div. I.  The Zags’ offensive onslaught most recently dismantled Northern Arizona (88-58) and Dixie State (112-67).

In the last three outings, Kispert and Ayayi have been the stars for Gonzaga.  Against Virginia, Kispert was unconscious from beyond the arc, draining nine threes to finish with 32 points, and – after scoring just eight against Northern Arizona – went 10-16 from the floor for 25 points against Dixie State.  Ayayi, meanwhile, recorded back-to-back double-doubles against Northern Arizona (17 points and 10 rebounds) and Dixie State (21 points and 11 rebounds).

Meanwhile, San Francisco (7-4) has looked the part of a team that could finish second in the WCC.  After a season-opening loss to UMass Lowell, the Dons have amassed a solid collection of wins, including over Virginia in Bubbleville, Nevada, and Grand Canyon.  Their other three losses – URI, California, and Oregon – are nothing to be too terribly upset over.

The Dons’ offense is not nearly as efficient as Gonzaga’s, but it does still rank in the top 100 in a few categories, including adjusted offense efficiency (69th), effective FG% (53.2%, 75th), 3P% (37.0%), and turnover percentage (17.2%, 63rd).  They struggle a bit more from inside the arc, shooting a 138th-best 50.8% – but the Dons ultimately rely substantially more on three-pointers, where 44.4% of their point distribution comes from – the ninth highest-mark, compared to just 40.4% (320th) on two-pointers.

The backcourt pairing of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz has been crucial in leading the Dons to their 7-4 start.  Bouyea, an All-WCC Preseason Team selection, averages a team-high 18.0 points per game and is coming off a 24-point performance in USF’s most recent outing, a 70-64 WCC-opening win over San Diego.  Shabazz, meanwhile, has been a bit streakier, scoring just seven points against San Diego – but poured in 22 points behind five three-pointers in the win over Grand Canyon en route to averaging 15.0 points per game.

Those two have taken an overwhelming amount of San Francisco’s shots – when they are in, Boyea takes 26.1% of USF’s shots and Shabazz takes 30.5% – but the supporting cast has been solid.  Dzmitry Ryuny has averaged double-digits (10.3 ppg) but has trailed off after posting double-digits in five-straight games, tallying single-digits in five-straight since December 10th’s game against Long Beach State.

Compared to Gonzaga’s offense of 1.10 points per possession, USF’s is nothing to rave about, averaging 0.95 points per possession – but both defenses are identical, holding opposing teams to 0.86 points.  To state the obvious, the Dons’ defense will need to keep up with their season average – and have their best offensive performance yet – in order to topple the Zags.

While Gonzaga maintains a dominant 63-22 all-time edge in the series over San Francisco – and the Dons have not claimed a win over the Zags since 2012 – no one, with the exception of BYU’s win, played Gonzaga closer in WCC play last year than San Francisco.  While the Zags claimed a 71-54 win at home in February, USF lost to Gonzaga – twice – by four points last season, first at USF in early February, and again in the WCC Tournament in March.

The Dons will desperately need Ryuny to come alive in the post in order to combat the inside play of Timme.  If Boyea and Shabazz are able to produce as they have proven, they should be able to keep up with Suggs and Kispert – but the Zags may just have too many weapons for San Francisco to keep up with, especially in Spokane.

Prediction: Gonzaga 92 – San Francisco 78