Baylor vs. Texas: 2020-21 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

Prediction: Tuesday, February 2, 7:00 pm ET. ESPN

Arena: Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Special Events Center in Austin, Texas

The second-ranked Baylor Bears and sixth-ranked Texas Longhorns will face the toughest challenge yet on their schedules, meeting in an evening Tuesday clash in a game with huge implications on the Big 12 title race – and the race for a number-one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Bears (16-0) are most recently coming off an 84-72 romp over Auburn in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge on Saturday.  One of the three remaining undefeated teams in the nation, Baylor has continued its efficient tear on the offensive and defensive ends, currently holding down third in both offensive and defensive efficiencies.

Saturday’s game against the Tigers was a statistical oddity for Baylor – and only just proved how good the Bears can be, even when their stats are not up to par.  The Bears allowed Auburn to shoot 51.2% inside while recording clips of 47.6% (2PT), 36.7% (3PT), and 61.1% (FT) themselves – all three marks being under Baylor’s season averages.  The difference-maker was just how deadly Baylor’s offense was, however – they averaged a whopping 1.17 points per possession, and saw their five-point halftime lead balloon to as much as 21 in the second stanza.

Part of the reason why Baylor’s offense has been so deadly is because of how many players are capable of lighting up the scoreboard – and that happened against Auburn.  Five different Bears reached double-digits, with Adam Flagler leading the way off the bench with 19 points in 23 minutes.  Joining him were Jared Butler (16 points, five assists), MaCio Teague (15 points), Davion Mitchell (13 points, seven assists), and Matthew Mayer (13 points), who delivered the highlight of the night, courtesy of this dunk:

The Longhorns (11-3), meanwhile, experienced a rare loss, falling to an upset-hungry Oklahoma squad last Tuesday, 80-79.  That loss – the second in the last three games for Texas – was a bizarre one for the Longhorns, who were missing Shaka Smart on the sidelines, as well as Courtney Ramey and Jericho Sims on the court due to COVID-19 protocol.

Despite missing nearly 22 points of production between Ramey and Sims, the Longhorns nearly rebounded from a second-half 18-point deficit, holding the Sooners to just three points in the last four minutes.  There were some blemishes in Texas’ performance – they committed a whopping 29 fouls, had three players foul out, and struggled from beyond the arc (24.0%) – but they dominated inside, knocking down 56.1% (23-41) of their two-pointers and outscoring OU in points in the paint, 38-20.

Like Baylor, the Longhorns also featured five double-digit scorers in their most recent outing, with Kai Jones – in just his second start of the season – registering a season-best 15 points.  In addition, Greg Brown (14 points, eight rebounds), Matt Coleman (13 points, four assists), Andrew Jones (13 points, eight rebounds, four assists), and Donovan Williams (11 points) all tallied double-figures for a team that averaged 1.05 points per possession.

Currently, the Longhorns are expected to be completely healthy for this game, meaning we will get – arguably – the two best Big 12 teams finally facing each other for the first time this season with both at full health.  This could be, arguably, the most anticipated game of the regular season – and could be a good one, considering both teams currently maintain similar stats in Big 12 play.

The Bears have been the best-shooting team both inside and outside the arc – and the Longhorns are behind in both categories at third.  Defensively, Baylor ranks third in 3P% (30.7%) and second in 2P% (46.2%) – while Texas trails in 2P% defense (47.6%) but actually surpasses the Bears in 3P% defense, maintaining a second-best 29.6% in conference play.

These teams are, essentially, evenly-matched.  They both rely substantially more on the three-ball than two-pointers and rank around the middle in the Big 12 when it comes to free-throws.  But what could be a key area to watch where both teams differ is on the boards.

The Bears lead the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage, hauling down a second-chance board on 36.9% of their attempts.  The Longhorns, meanwhile, are the best in the conference in defending teams from getting offensive rebounds, allowing an offensive board on just 26.3% of opponents’ possessions.

If there has been a team that has lived through nailbiters, it has been the Longhorns.  They have had eight games be decided by six points or less, and the Longhorns are 5-3 in those games.  The Bears, meanwhile, are the exact opposite – they have had just two games come down to single-digits, and both games were decided by eight points each.  Baylor is winning games by an astonishing margin of 24.9 points this season.

If Texas is fully healthy for this game, this may be the closest tilt Baylor endures yet.  The Longhorns have the physicality needed to line up against the Bears, but they will have to shut down Jared Butler, who has been averaging 20.25 points, 4.8 assists, and 1.4 steals in Baylor’s last four outings since his season-low seven points against Texas Tech.

All the signs for this game point to Baylor coming out on top, however.  They have just been too dominant, and – while teams have been able to string successful 35 minutes against the Bears – opponents have yet to string together a full 40 minutes.  Texas will have the best opportunity to do that yet, at home, no less – but Baylor’s dominance over teams that Texas has struggled with bodes well for the Bears.

Prediction: Baylor 84 – Texas 80