North Carolina Basketball: 3 keys to topple Duke in 2020-21 rivalry showdown

2. Turnovers ailed UNC against Clemson, and they will have to clean it up against a Duke team that thrives on points off turnovers

Turnovers are something that has plagued the Tar Heels all season long, although their numbers have been considerably better in conference play compared to their non-conference schedule.  However, it greatly plagued the Tar Heels against Clemson on Tuesday – and it is an area of concern heading into the game with Duke.

UNC committed a whopping 17 turnovers against the Tigers, compared to just seven for Clemson.  To UNC’s credit, points off turnovers were not necessarily awful – just 13-8 in favor of Clemson – but the Tar Heels, for the season, are committing a turnover on 21.0% of their possessions – 266th in the nation.  That mark is not much better in ACC play at 20.4%.

By contrast, however, the Blue Devils – in their win over Clemson – feasted on turnovers while valuing the ball themselves.  They forced 13 Tiger turnovers – and scored 28 points off them, compared to just six points for Clemson off of nine Duke turnovers.

The Blue Devils did not experience as much success in their last outing against Miami, being outscored 18-14 in points off turnovers – but still forced 14 Hurricane turnovers.  In all, the Blue Devils are forcing ACC teams to commit a turnover on 19.8% of their possessions – the third-best mark in the conference.

For North Carolina, taking care of the ball begins in the backcourt, where Caleb Love and RJ Davis lead the team in turnovers with 54 and 32, respectively, on the season.  Love’s turnover rate is an astonishing 25.2% – meaning 1/4 of the time the ball is in his hands, it results in a UNC turnover.

Both will desperately have to value the ball when facing Jordan Goldwire and Jalen Johnson, both of whom see substantial playing time and lead the Blue Devils in steal percentage at 4.4% and 3.0%, respectively.  If the Tar Heels hope to stand a chance, they desperately need to keep their number of turnovers low – and limit the number of free opportunities that Duke can get.