North Carolina Basketball: 3 keys to topple Duke in 2020-21 rivalry showdown

3. Duke’s main source of offense comes on two-pointers – and the Tar Heels will need to shut them down inside

One of the biggest issues with prepping for Duke is not knowing exactly who to prepare for.  At least seven different players have scored double-digits for the Blue Devils, and Matthew Hurt is the only one who has done it consistently.

What can be prepped for when it comes to the Blue Devils, however, is defending their inside game.  Again, UNC desperately needs to take advantage of points in the paint – but they will also need to shut Duke down inside the arc, whether it be inside or outside the paint.

The fact of the matter is that this is a “pick your poison” type of game for North Carolina.  If Duke enjoys success anywhere on the floor, it is inside the arc, where they shoot 53.1% – the fourth-best mark in the ACC – and have 54.2% (fifth) of their offense come from.  Contrarily, the Blue Devils rank 10th in the ACC in 3P% (32.7%) and have 30.8% of their offense come from long range.

The Tar Heels will surrender long-range bombs in this game.  They are allowing ACC teams to shoot a blistering 37.7% from outside – they gave up 34.8% to an absolutely abysmal three-point shooting Clemson team that ranks last in the ACC in that stat – but are among the best in the conference in defending inside the arc, holding teams to just 48.3%.

Most of that comes from the height and physicality of their frontcourt, but the Blue Devils will have to be shut down across all five positions.  Three players who see substantial playing time – Jalen Johnson, Jeremy Roach, and Hurt – are all shooting 60.0% on two-pointers, and the Blue Devils are coming off a game where they shot 53.3% (24-45) against the Hurricanes.

The Tar Heels are very much capable of doing just this.  In their last four games, they are holding teams to a 45.6% mark on two-pointers (67-147) – including a 15-34 (44.1%) clip for Clemson.  In all four of those games – Clemson, Pittsburgh, N.C. State and Wake Forest – the Tar Heels recorded better percentages on two-pointers than their opposition.

Again, this game is a must-win for Duke – but it is also as much of a must-win for North Carolina.  The Blue Devils are working to get themselves onto the right side of the bubble, while the Tar Heels are fighting to keep themselves in the tournament field.

UNC’s quest for their 140th win against the Blue Devils must consist of a team effort – from the backcourt taking care of the ball to the frontcourt dominating inside.  All eyes will be on this game on Saturday – and the Tar Heels have a valuable opportunity to hand their rivals a devastating defeat.