Missouri Basketball: Can Tigers be a threat in 2021 NCAA tournament?

Refuting the argument against an early exit

The best argument in support of Missouri being able to defeat the representative from the American East Conference or from the Sun Belt is the fact that Missouri has beaten much better teams this season. Illinois, Tennessee, and Alabama are more talented than Vermont and Texas State, but for every quality win, they have more than one close game versus an inferior opponent.

Another obvious argument is that Tilmon’s importance is being overstated as Pinson and Smith each average over a point more than him per game. Those additional points do come from over three shots more per game and a lot comes from being able to penetrate into the key and hit foul line jumper has the defense packs the paint and by getting layups as the help defense is occupied with Tilmon.

While it must be recognized that a win is a win, especially on the road, it is also true that not every win is created equally. Even when one puts aside the 80-59 loss to Mississippi, the Tigers have eight victories by ten points or fewer. Blowing teams out is not an indication of a great team per see, but close games are often won and lost on the free-throw line where Missouri does not crack the top 220 in the nation.

Another statistic that falls under the ‘how you lose is more important than if you lose’ is the fact that in their four losses they average fewer turnovers than they do on the season, even when Missouri takes care of the basketball, they are still vulnerable to losing.

A good showing in the SEC tournament could solidify a three seed, but with road games at Mississippi and Florida remaining, a four seed is a realistic possibility as well as getting burned by giving up a lot of three-point looks as they get bounced in the first round.